9/11/24 600am Hurricane Francine Update: County-by-County forecast update for Southern MS/AL/LA

The latest from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Francine is still floating around the southwestern Gulf and it is now drifting northward.

The forecast from the NHC shows the Tropical Storm strengthening into a Hurricane – now a Category 1 Hurricane – before landfall. Max sustained wind shown is 100mph.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z…DISSIPATED
NHC.NOAA.GOV

Landfall is expect to happen on Wednesday afternoon / evening.

The timeline on the arrival of Tropical Storm-force wind is shown in the graphic below on the left and the percent-chance you see Hurricane-force winds is below and on the right. Notice the Hurricane-force winds are confined mainly to the immediate coastline.

Below is the county-by-county breakdown. The storm is still strengthening, there is a chance this forecast will change. So please take this for now, but check back for an update.

Given the timeline above, please note that all times shown begin on Wednesday and – if needed – move into Thursday morning.

QUICK NOTES

As we talked about last night, the dry air – and a little shear – are going to do a number on this thing as it nears landfall and once it is ashore. That should reduce the length of the impacts, but won’t really change the potency of the system for folks with impacts that start before, roughly 2am overnight tonight.

So if you live south of – roughly – Highway 84 the forecast has actually shifted slightly slower, but your wind has increased slightly for a the short period of time where the most intense part of the storm is passing.

For folks north of HWY 84 the forecast has slowed and your wind has also slowed.

The insertion of dry air and shear may also increase the tornado along some of the souter bands in the back right quadrant, too. So the tornado risk may linger for some a bit longer than “normal” during a landfalling tropical system.

The good news is the erosion of the back half of the storm as it moves ashore means that the rainfall totals ahve been reduce for many spots.

I know this may feel like a stressful situation, but I promise you that if you take the right steps, have a plan in place, and execute that plan, you’ll make it through the storm with far less stress.

And before you dive into the forecast, if you appreciate the work I do and want to help buy me a slice of pizza or a coffee, I’d be grateful. This is a pretty time-consuming process and any help you can offer is always awesome!

Along I-20

Rankin County:

3p — 11p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. Sustained wind between 15 and 30mph. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

11p — 8a – Sustained wind between 25 and 40 mph. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-6 inches.

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

Scott County:

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

Newton County:

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

Lauderdale County:

11p — 8a – Sustained wind between 30 and 40 mph. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-6 inches.

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

Near I-20

Copiah County:

3p — 10p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. Sustained wind between 15 and 30mph. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

10p — 7a – Sustained wind between 35 and 40 mph. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-6 inches.

7a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 9p

Simpson County:

7a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 9p

Smith County:

10p — 7a – Sustained wind between 35 and 45 mph. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-6 inches.

7a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 9p

Jasper County:

7a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 9p

Clarke County:

10p — 7a – Sustained wind between 30 and 40 mph. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

7a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 9p

HWY 84 Corridor

Lincoln County:

1p — 8p – Sustained wind will be between 15 and 35mph. As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

8p — 4a – Sustained wind will be between 30 and 50mph for up to an hour as most intense part of the storm passes. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Roads may be impassable due to downed trees
— Numerous power outages are likely, have battery backup if needed
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

Lawrence County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

Jeff Davis County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

Covington County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

Jones County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

Wayne County:

8p — 4a – Sustained wind will be between 30 and 45mph for up to an hour as most intense part of the storm passes. There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 7p

HWY 98 Corridor

Pike County:

9a — 5p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-2 inches possible.

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 55mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-9 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Wind will knock over and blow around anything not tied down or anchored
— Roads may be impassable due to downed trees
— Numerous, multiple-hour, power outages are likely, have battery backup
— A Tornado Watch is likely

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Walthall County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Marion County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Lamar County:

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 50mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-9 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Forrest County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Perry County:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Greene County:

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 40mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-6 inches.

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

HWY 26 Corridor

Pearl River County:

8a — 4p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-2 inches possible.

4p — 2a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 60mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-8 inches.

2a — 6a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Stone County:

5p — 3a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 60mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

3a — 7a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

George County:

10a — 5p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

5p — 4a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

4a — 8a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

MISSISSIPPI COAST

Hancock County:

8a — 2p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 70mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. The main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 75mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Harrison County:

8a — 3p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

3p — 1a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 70mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

1a — 4a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 2p

Jackson County:

3p — 1a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 65mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-7 inches.

1a — 4a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 2p

LOUISIANA PARISHES

St. Helena Parish:

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 55mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 80mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Tangipahoa Parish:

2p — 12a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 65mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 85mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Washington Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Livingston Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

St. Tammany Parish:

12a — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

Orleans Parish:

8a — 1p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-3 inches possible.

1p — 11p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 70mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 90mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 5-10 inches.

11p — 3a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

ALABAMA COUNTIES

Sumter County:

11a — 7p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

7p — 7a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 45mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Choctaw County:

7a — 1p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Washington County:

11a — 6p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 50mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

6a — 11a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

Mobile County:

6p — 6a – There is a chance for showers and storms. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 55mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF1 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 3-5 inches.

6a — 11a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and some power outages are possible
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 6p

MISC REQUESTED COUNTIES

Neshoba County, MS:

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

Franklin County, MS:

4a — 10a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 4p

Hinds County:

8a — 12p – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

How it will impact you:
— Roads may be briefly impassable due to short-term flash flooding
— Trees may be knocked down, and scattered power outages are likely
— A Tornado Watch is possible

Best to be where you want to be by 10p

St. Charles Parish:

7a — 12p – As things get started, a few isolated storms are possible. A few may be severe. The main concerns are brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind, small hail. Rainfall totals up to 1-3 inches possible.

12p — 9p – There is a chance for showers and storms. Wind will be intense with sustained wind up to 80mph for up to an hour as the strongest part of the core passes. Some severe. the main concerns are heavy rain, wind gusts up to 100mph, and a few tornadoes (up to EF2 in strength). Rainfall totals are estimated to be around 4-9 inches.

9p — 1a – All Clear! Though, there is a chance for some lingering brief heavy rain, some lightning, gusty wind. Rainfall totals up to 1 inch possible.

Best to be where you want to be by 1p

QUICK NOTES

Along I-20

Rankin County:

Scott County:

Newton County:

Lauderdale County:

Near I-20

Copiah County:

Simpson County:

Smith County:

Jasper County:

Clarke County:

HWY 84 Corridor

Lincoln County:

Lawrence County:

Jeff Davis County:

Covington County:

Jones County:

Wayne County:

HWY 98 Corridor

Pike County:

Walthall County:

Marion County:

Lamar County:

Forrest County:

Perry County:

Greene County:

HWY 26 Corridor

Pearl River County:

Stone County:

George County:

MISSISSIPPI COAST

Hancock County:

Harrison County:

Jackson County:

LOUISIANA PARISHES

St. Helena Parish:

Tangipahoa Parish:

Washington Parish:

Livingston Parish:

St. Tammany Parish:

Orleans Parish:

ALABAMA COUNTIES

Sumter County:

Choctaw County:

Washington County:

Mobile County:

MISC REQUESTED COUNTIES

Neshoba County, MS:

Franklin County, MS:

Hinds County:

St. Charles Parish:

Author of the article:

Nick Lilja

One thought on “9/11/24 600am Hurricane Francine Update: County-by-County forecast update for Southern MS/AL/LA”

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