The model guidance for Invest 95L made a distinct shift overnight to the east.
The above image may look like a bit of chicken-scratch, but what it shows is a push to the east in the genesis of a tropical system by the ECMWF computer weather model.
And it isn’t just one model that did this.
You can also see the jump to the east in the modeling within the suite of models available from @TropicalTidbits pic.twitter.com/GJkZzROTYw
— Nick Lilja (@NickLilja) September 12, 2019
I posted about the move on Twitter this morning.
Since this is just an Invest, not a true tropical system, the models are having a tough time seeing the center.
Because the center is tough to find. And if models all think the center is in a different place, they will shift the forecast track accordingly.
The problem is – what if that isn’t the center? This is why forecasting Invest movement and genesis is tough. If the models ‘drop a pin’ on the wrong place, so to speak, the outcome can be wildly different.
From the NHC
Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
What should you do for now?
Keep a lookout for Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories later today / tonight. The NHC started using these in recent years to give people an early heads up for storms like this that are forming closer to land.
These situations can be difficult for forecasters and meteorologists. Because there aren’t many ‘real’ answers for questions about where this is going and what it will do. Not yet.
Keep tabs on the forecast in the coming days. Check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. That’s about it. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water.
Not because this system is anticipated to wipe out power and water to an area, but rather, you should always have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water during Hurricane season.
