TRopcial Storm Ian continues to drift through the Caribbean.
The storms hasn’t gained much latitude today as it has been moving mostly due west.
FROM THE NHC
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…14.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
KEY MESSAGES
- Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid next week. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are expected on Grand Cayman beginning early Monday.
- Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane when it passes near or over western Cuba, and there is increasing confidence in a life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday.
- Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week, but uncertainty in the track forecast is higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.
BRIEF DISCUSSION
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 77.0 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Raw numbers for the forecast cone:
INIT 24/2100Z — 14.3N 77.0W — 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z — 14.6N 78.4W — 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z — 15.7N 80.3W — 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/0600Z — 17.4N 82.2W — 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z — 19.2N 83.5W — 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/0600Z — 20.9N 84.4W — 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z — 23.1N 85.0W — 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1800Z — 26.2N 84.8W — 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 29/1800Z — 28.7N 83.9W — 90 KT 105 MPH
HAZARDS
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 10 inches
Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches
Florida Keys and southern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches through Tuesday evening
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization, and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone
based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found 850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.
The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain 265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Overall, the westward trend in the track models continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week.
The latest NHC track forecast is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.
Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core, rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66 percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h.
The NHC intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida.
Environmental conditions could become less favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through the period.
Model Guidance
Part of the reason for the shift is the increased movement from the model guidance. That is being led by the increased data going into those models. Not only are the Hurricane Hunters out there, but the NWS offices across the country are launching extra weather balloons.
All of that extra data is doing a great job at informing the models with better “initialization data” to build from. It means that the forecast moving forward can become even more accurate. Or at least, that is the hope.
Given all of this new data the forecast track for Tropical Storm Ian, as well as the forecast intensity, has changed. Things have moved farther west and the consensus is that the storm will rapidly strengthen and then weaken as it approaches land.
Again, not the “forecast” but instead just the model guidance.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Tropical Storm Ian is currently forecast to become a Hurricane and has the potential to be a Major Hurricane at some point in its lifespan. It is currently forecast to make landfall somewhere along the Florida coast on the Gulf of Mexico side of the peninsula or along the panhandle.
If you live anywhere from about New Orleans to Miami you should probably double-check your Hurricane Prep Kit. You may not need it, but I’d check it to make sure it is ready to go. If you live along the water, I’d double check the evacuation routes. If you live inland I’d double check around the house to make sure there aren’t any loose branches on trees or leaves clogging up the gutters and storm drains in the roads.
if you live inside the current Forecast Cone, you should be stocking up on supplies you may need that you don’t currently have in your Hurricane Prep Kit and also considering buying some extra gas for the cars or to run a generator, take out some cash at the local ATM, and make sure you have enough water for every person in your house for up to a week.
If you are left wondering, “Do I need to worry about this?” If you live east of New Orleans along the coast and west of Miami along the coast, I wouldn’t worry but I would keep a very close eye on the forecast and follow the guidance above.
Worrying doesn’t accomplish much. I forget who said it, but “worrying is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do, but doesn’t accomplish anything.”
Instead, just get prepared. Worst case scenario you stocked up the Hurricane Kit for nothing and you have snacks to eat for the rest of football season.
The nice thing about being prepared is it gives you peace of mind. And it makes the storm not as bad if/when it rolls through. The old saying, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of recover” is so true.
I would think worrying might prompt someone into doing as you say … to check and make sure your preparedness kit is ready. It’s those that DON’T worry are the ones caught off-guard. I speak from person experience, I’m ashamed to say. I feel more assured knowing you’re staying on top of this!
You are the first thing and last thing I look at on FB. I appreciate your efforts in keeping us informed. MS struggles in severe weather updates. We sure miss you though.