Happy Tuesday weather wackos! This article I got to choose myself rather than just simply being given one that Nick found thought-provoking. So upon reading this one, I realized that I created my own demise by choosing a topic that’s rather pertinent to my future career path but also neglecting to realize that this article may have been outside of my academic level.
I struggled with comprehension on the formulaic and more numeric components but the overall purpose and means behind the article were very interesting. I will give you as much of a wholesome look at the article as I can, and to do that, I’ll use more direct quotes from authors A.J.M. Jacobs and N. Maat so if you’re academia is more advanced, you may be able to understand their study more than I. If you get to a point where you can more clearly explain some of the details, feel free to leave responses. Here’s a review of, Numerical Guidance Methods for Decision Support in Aviation Meteorological Forecasting by Jacobs and Maat.
Summary:
Jacobs and Maat created this study in response to, “the production of aviation meteorological forecasts is based mainly on forecasters using numerical weather prediction ((NWP)) model data in combination with available observations”, (83). While there has been a large increase in modeling, they haven’t reached cloud and precipitation, “can be resolved at the spatial and temporal resolutions needed for airport weather forecasts,” (83). They suggest that short-term forecasts are variable by local and upstream observations. I discovered their thesis (I believe that’s what it’s considered in scientific articles). Furthermore, they state that, “the purpose of this paper is to describe the numerical guidance methods and their related numerical guidance products, and to show their potential in aviation meteorological forecasting” (83). They branched out and didn’t purely look at one region’s data on a small scale but rather, included information from weather centers along the coast of the Netherlands.
3 Things for Further Study:
- “The development of a MOS-based system requires a huge amount of model data, as much as 3-4 yr of historical field data. For the development of the statistical forecast equations, the model field data used with a limited output time step of 6 h” (84). —– Why does using a MOS-based system require more model data for development? Is there a time range where data is more viable for study?
- The calculations the two authors have contrived require immediate input of data in order to give the most adequate basis of study, however, it also requires that forecasters give their input as well. —– How can this be used in such a short turn around needed for on the spot visibility change for aviation landing/takeoff. How can these models be used more quickly or developed to have technology centered to include the normal responses to certain weather measures?
- “At present, airport authorities and an airline at Schiphol airport, in cooperation with KNMI, have developed a prototype system for inbound capacity forecast. The forecast system is based on technical runway availability and weather forecasts from the numerical TAF guidance” (20). —– I would really like to see the outcome of this prototype and how this can improve the response time for changing weather conditions.
Modern Meteorology:
This will help the future of meteorology by looking to give real-time adjusting models to boost the speed at which aviation flying conditions are produced. Not only will this help the commercial side of aviation, but this could also lead into stronger development for military flight. People are always looking to get the information as far in advance as they can and with technology, that looks more promising without having to insert data into numerous different equations. The future of this increases productivity and efficiency within the weather world.
Thanks for reading, goodnight everyone!
