Here is another quick update on the COVID-19 pandemic. Not to go Bones McCoy on everyone, but, “I’m a meteorologist, not a doctor!” I am not an expert in any medical field. Nor should you infer from these posts that I think of myself as one. I am not. At all.
These updates are my way of helping everyone sift through the riff-raff with some translation into regular English.
The latest statistics
Here are a few numbers from some of the reputable sites collecting and releasing data….
CDC & WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 291,430
Total Worldwide Deaths: 12,784
Total United States cases: 15,219 as of Friday
— Travel-related: 337
— Close contact: 321
— Under investigation: 15,219
Total deaths: 201
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands
(Numbers pulled from other reliable resources) Total United States cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 350,536
Total US cases: 35,225
Total US deaths: 471
Total US recovered: 178 (or more, new data not available this morning)
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put this next chart together. As it notes, it is pulling numbers from the Johns Hopkins totals. It shows the double-time of cases as about two-and-a-half days.
Dr. Celine Gounder on the Dan LeBatard Show
I listen to a fair amount of sports radio when I can. Dan LeBatard got in touch with Dr. Celine Gounder and NYU professor and podcast host. She gave this interview:
Listen all the way through. @LeBatardShow: “Doctor, have you ever been this scared?”@celinegounder: (Pause) “No.”
Well worth your 7 1/2 minutes and well worth sharing. pic.twitter.com/oilCQSRDAC— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) March 23, 2020
I know some doctors. I have a handful of friends who are nurses. Most on the west coast. Some of the people I know work in ERs, others ICUs, others in out-patient services. I try to check on them every few days. And ask them how it is going. And some – not all – of the answers remind me of talking to my friends who served in the military.
That isn’t to say that the jobs were equal, they’re not.
But for those of you who can think back to a phone call you may have had with someone serving. The loss for words to describe “how’s it going?” when asked, the general void of emotion due to stress or lack of sleep. And, as a friend calling, I’m constantly determined to make them laugh because I can recognize their struggle.
I know this thing may not be “hitting close to home” for some. But for others, it is. And, right now, if I could inject some opinion… it is important that we support those who are dealing with the worst of this.
Those covidactnow.org graphs
I was sent a link asking about the validity of this website. And while I can’t fact-check every site, this made the short-list as an easy one to check out. Because it is run by scientists, mathematicians, and CEOs. This isn’t a fear-monger in his Mom’s basement.
The site offers links to all of the math and research that go into the calculation, so it is really easy to “double-check their math” to see if what they are saying has merit. A lot like the post I made the other day, when making predictions and extrapolations (a lot like with weather) you have to make assumptions. Sometimes those assumptions don’t have a big impact on the final outcome, other times they do.
But Nick, you know what they say about assumptions! Totally! But in math, you have to do it. Because we can’t know everything, so we have to assume certain things.
As a quick example, I can’t know what the temperature is at your house… so I assume it is within three-degrees of the official ASOS site locally. So I say, “The high today was 85!” and most of us go, okay sure. While others say, “Wrong again, Weatherman! It was 83 at my house. This jokester is the worst.”
But we can’t know what the temperature will be at every single house because there is too much variability within the data. MAybe your house is on a hill, in a valley, in the woods, we don’t know. We can’t know. So we assume.
In the case of this website, the assumptions they make actually do have a reasonably high bearing on the outcome of their math. And while I can’t argue – directly – with their mathematics, I can argue that the assumptions they are making may not be totally accurate. Not because they aren’t smart. But because there is a lot of variability in the data. A lot like our weather example above.
The site tries to “smooth” the data and average it out. But that doesn’t always produce accurate final numbers. Rounding (averaging) is a powerful thing in math and can really create issues down the line.
So what’s your point, Nick?
I would take the numbers on that site as a reasonable, slightly-worse-than-actual, estimate. It is closer to reality than a “worse-case scenario” but you can’t cut it into stone, either. it is also probably over-doing the numbers a bit due to the variability within the data. But I don’t think you can discount it.
Things you should be doing now
I may start to include this in every post. Because I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche. So, while consuming all of the new info, make sure you are following the CDC’s guidance.
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face.
Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
