Sadly, the numbers continue to rise. But know that experts (and basic mathematics) suggest that numbers will continue to rise even with social distancing and hand-washing hands due to the five to 14 day incubation period. Since the widespread effort began about 10 days ago, we should start to see things slow down in the coming days compared to where those numbers could be. But they will likely still rise until more limiting measures are taken.
Why? Well, while a lot of people are on-board, there are still a lot of people who are not. Hopefully they come around soon so we can kick this thing to the curb.
Before we get into the numbers and some other information… A reminder!
I’m still not a doctor. Not am I a medical professional. And I’m still learning new things every day – just like you – about this virus. These posts are a cultivation of information from official sources. Beyond that, I try to break down the new information into digestible English as best I can. But there is a lot I still don’t know or cannot translate. But I’ll try my best.
I do make estimations based on the application of mathematics from past research. Those estimates are based on statistics and math, and it wouldn’t make a difference what we were counting – sheep, beer cans or viruses – it is just math at that point..
Latest Statistics
CDC & WHO Numbers
Total Worldwide Cases: 509,164
Total Worldwide Deaths: 23,335
Total United States cases: 85,356
— Travel-related: 712
— Close contact: 1326
— Under investigation: 83,318
Total deaths: 1,246
States reporting cases: 50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands
COVID-19 cases reported by other medical sites:
Johns Hopkins
Total Worldwide Cases: 595,953
Total Worldwide Deaths: 27,333
Total Worldwide Recovered: 131,698
Total US cases: 104,007
Total US deaths: 1,702
Total US recovered: 890
Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at Univ. of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, put that chart together. As it notes, it is pulling numbers from the Johns Hopkins totals. It shows the double-time of cases as about two-and-a-half days.
You can see how the last two days, the new numbers have fallen short of the trend line. That is good news! But we need it to be MUCH lower in order to make any real impact.
Regional Numbers
| Total Cases | Total Tested | Deaths | Percent-positive | Mortality Rate | |
| Mississippi | 579 | 3139 | 8 | 18.45% | 1.38% |
| Louisiana | 2746 | 18883 | 119 | 14.54% | 4.33% |
| Alabama | 639 | 4755 | 3 | 13.44% | 0.47% |
| Tennessee | 1203 | 16091 | 6 | 7.48% | 0.50% |
| Arkansas | 386 | 3269 | 3 | 11.81% | 0.78% |
| Total | 5553 | 46137 | 139 | 12.04% | 2.50% |
A few states in the region do release the number of hospitalized people due to COVID-19. Those numbers are as follows:
Mississippi: 124
Louisiana: 773 (270 on ventilators)
Alabama: Not given
Tennessee: 103
Arkansas: Not given
Making Estimates from past research
I talked about research from the Cruise Ships that may be relevant to estimating the number of cases without testing everyone (since that isn’t a feasible option). Plus, this type of estimate would make a good “first guess” at the number of asymptomatic people (the people who don’t feel sick, but are still infected), too.
This type of estimating isn’t perfect. In fact, it is far from it. And it is just an estimate. But based on the past research, it is at least a start.
| Estimated Symptomatic | Estimated Asymptomatic | Estimated total | Actual Deaths | Estimated Mortality Rate | |
| Mississippi | 883 | 194 | 1077 | 6 | 0.56% |
| Louisiana | 4188 | 919 | 5108 | 83 | 1.63% |
| Alabama | 975 | 214 | 1189 | 1 | 0.08% |
| Tennessee | 1835 | 403 | 2238 | 3 | 0.13% |
| Arkansas | 589 | 129 | 718 | 3 | 0.42% |
| Total | 8469 | 1859 | 10329 | 96 | 0.93% |
New research
Mayo Clinic
Your sneeze radius is much larger than researchers previously thought. Dr. Gregory Poland, an infectious diseases expert and director of Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group says this may cause increased transmission.
Dr. Gregory Poland also points out that last week in the U.S. there were 18,000 cases, while today, there are over 85,000. He says there is no evidence that this is going to end soon.
Mount Sinai
Some good news. This is straight out of a Sci-Fi flick. The Mount Sinai Health System claims that the researchers and doctors there plan to initiate a “plasmapheresis,” where the antibodies from someone who has recovered from COVID-19 will be transferred into critically ill person still fighting the disease. The hope is that the antibodies from the healthy person’s plasma will help fight off COVID-19 and neutralize it.
Mount Sinai also reports:
In addition to its widespread use in plasmapheresis, the antibody test will provide experts with an accurate infection rate so they can track the trajectory of the disease. The test will help identify health care workers who are already immune to the disease, who can work directly with infectious patients, and it can also help scientists understand how the human immune system reacts to the virus.
Harvard Medical
Harvard took some time to elaborate on the claims that COVID-19 patients are being treated with high-dose Vitamin C.
The idea that high-dose IV vitamin C might help in overwhelming infections is not new. A 2017 study found that high-dose IV vitamin C treatment (along with thiamine and corticosteroids) appeared to prevent deaths among people with sepsis, a form of overwhelming infection causing dangerously low blood pressure and organ failure. Another study published last year assessed the effect of high-dose vitamin C infusions among patients with severe infections who had sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), in which the lungs fill with fluid. While the study’s main measures of improvement did not improve within the first four days of vitamin C therapy, there was a lower death rate at 28 days among treated patients. Though neither of these studies looked at vitamin C use in patients with COVID-19, the vitamin therapy was specifically given for sepsis and ARDS, and these are the most common conditions leading to intensive care unit admission, ventilator support, or death among those with severe COVID-19 infections.
In this case, the IV of Vitamin C is being used to speed up recovery, not prevent death or treat the illness. And they note that there is no clear or convincing scientific evidence that it works for COVID-19 infections, and it is not a standard part of treatment for this new infection. They also note that there is no evidence that suggests taking Vitamin C will help ward off COVID-19. And, as a reminder, while Vitamin C is water soluble, too much can have side effects. One, very painful side effect, is too much Vitamin C can lead to an increased risk of kidney stones. Ouch.
They also took time to reassure people who are on high blood pressure medication after rumors started circulating social media. Harvard says that “angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs)” should still be taken, as prescribed by your doctor, until your doctor tells you to stop. On top of that the American Heart Association (AHA), the American College of Cardiology (ACC), and the Heart Failure Society of America (HFSA) strongly recommend that people taking these medications should continue to do so, even if they become infected.
Harvard notes:
Some studies suggest that ACE inhibitors and ARBs may reduce lung injury in people with other viral pneumonias. The same might be true of pneumonia caused by the COVID-19 virus.
Stopping your ACE inhibitor or ARB could actually put you at greater risk of complications from the infection, since it’s likely that your blood pressure will rise and heart problems would get worse.
Long story short: Keep taking medications prescribed by your doctor until you are told otherwise.
Things you should be doing now
I know this can all seem overwhelming at times. The sheer amount of information being kicked out by every media outlets is like an avalanche.
So, here are some things: Stay home if you can! Gotta work? That’s understandable. Need food? Sure, head to the store. But try to skip any “for fun” activities in public where you would be interacting with others or in a place with multiple other people.
Some CDC’s guidance:
— Know where to get your local / state-level information
For Mississippi: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html
For Louisiana: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
For Alabama: http://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/infectiousdiseases/2019-coronavirus.html
If you live in a state outside of the region, head to google and type in, “dept of health” followed by whatever state you live. Google should take you to that state’s department of health and on the main page, most states have a link to an update on the Coronavirus.
— Know the Symptoms
Look for things like a fever, dry cough, and shortness of breath. But also know when it may become an emergency. It becomes an emergency when you have difficulty breathing, a persistent pain or pressure in the chest, you develop general confusion, and if you develop bluish lips or face. Also recognize that body aches, weak stomach, nasal congestion, a sore throat, and other symptoms of the regular flu are not the same as the symptoms with Coronavirus.
— Stay home when you are sick
Any kind of sick. If you feel like you may have Coronavirus, call your health care provider’s office in advance of a visit. If you have any sickness, the CDC recommends to limit movement in the community, limit visitors, and practice good social distancing.
— Know if you are at a higher risk
Know what additional measures those at higher risk and who are vulnerable should take. Those at higher risk include older adults (over 60), people who have serious chronic medical conditions (like heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). Some research has indicated that people with asthma may also be included in the higher risk category.
— Take steps to mitigate your infection
The CDC recommends to “Implement steps to prevent illness” by washing high-traffic areas more often, washing hands with soap and water and if someone is sick, to isolate the sick person into a low-traffic area of the home.
— Create a Household Plan
Create a household plan of action in case of illness in the household or disruption of daily activities due to COVID-19 in the community.
