I wanted to circle back real fast since I’ve heard from a few folks that had some questions. Here is a ranking of the Top 20 deadliest COVID-19 dates in Mississippi. The dates shown are the “as of” dates. Meaning the reported totals were actually given the following day from the Mississippi Department of Health.
From May 1st’s report to May 14th’s report, the state of Mississippi has registered the Top 5 deadliest days for COVID. And seven of the Top 10 deadliest days, too. The state has also registered six of the Top 10 most “new cases” days since the May 1st release (April 30th data, and shown as April 30th above).
Some folks have responded with, “But we are testing more! That is why the totals are higher!”
Totally true. We are testing more. However, an interesting piece of information can be pulled out of the data.
On April 16th, 25 days into active cases in Mississippi, the state had tested 37,733 people. Of that number, a total of 3360 had been confirmed as positive.
Since that date, 28 days later, there have been an additional 67,593 tests given. And 7,123 confirmed cases.
So, yes, the numbers are higher. And yes, there are more tests being given.
So you have to look “under the hood” to pull out any meaningful information. You can’t just take it at face value. It is important to look at the ratio of tests given to testing positive.
Prior to April 16th, the ratio was about 1-in-11 people tested had it. So for every 11 people they gave a test, 10 came back negative.
Since then 1-in-9 has it. So for every nine tests given, eight people don’t have it.
It is a small change, but it can be statistically significant.
What does that mean? It is good news and bad news. The good news is that the tests are doing a better job at finding people who are sick. The bad news is that it could mean there is a chance that more people could have (or had it at one point) the virus than we realize, perhaps. Since the more people we test, the smaller that ratio becomes.
As an analogy, if you asked 100 people in Laurel if they like cabbage, and 10 said yes. You could say 10-percent of Mississippians like cabbage. ut if you asked 100,000 people in south Mississippi and 20,000 said yes, you would then say that 20-percent of Mississippians like cabbage.
Same idea here. As we “survey” more people’s immune system, we are learning that more people are infected.
Then some argue, “But the first tests were flawed!”
That may be true, but we can’t control that at this point. And it doesn’t change the ratio today.
There is also the false-negative rate. That can be affected by many things – including by the time of the test relative to the onset of the infection. But we can’t control that either. And it doesn’t change the ratio of tests given to tested positive.
So, we have to allow for certain assumptions to be used.
And the numbers show that the Top 5 deadliest days from the infection have occurred during the last two weeks. Some of the highest newly-positive cases have come during the past two weeks, too. And the tests are identifying positive cases at a more-efficient clip.
Before I go any further, I am not advocating for any particular societal response. That is not my job. I leave that up to the people we elect. Since that is why we elect them. I’ve heard from some folks accusing me of *this and *that or having an “agenda” with my posts.
My only agenda is showcasing information. There is no twisting of numbers, nor skewing of statistics here. I try to just highlight things that stand out.
So!
While things are re-opening, it is important to keep these numbers in mind. And protect yourself if you are in a high-risk group, interact with those who are in a high-risk group, or if you just simply want to keep from getting sick.
Just because things are re-opening does not mean this virus is done infecting people, nor does it mean that this virus is done killing people. So follow the CDC guidelines for social distancing, hand-washing, mask-wearing, etc. to help protect yourself and others.
