So, now that the number of new cases every day is fluctuating between 200 and 500, you may be left wondering, what does all this mean now and why should I care?
And that’s okay!
This isn’t always intuitive stuff. Statistics can be deceiving and sometimes the face-value of the numbers doesn’t line up with the actual reality that they reveal.
A quick graph
Since “re-opening” Mississippi on May 7th, here are a look at the number of new cases every day.
Recall that the incubation period is – on average – 5.1 days. That means that since opening Mississippi, some of these new cases occurred before the state re-opened.
But that isn’t the most important part. The most important part is the average number of cases and the standard deviations.
Some of you may recall standard deviation from a math class you took in high school or college. It is a great tool for finding the variability within the data. It helps give context to the numbers that we see.
On th graph, notice that the average new cases per day is 286. And “1 standard deviation from the mean” is 374 and 197. That means an “average” day of new cases, given the variability of the data, are days with between 197 and 374 new cases. Days that are more than “1 standard deviation from the mean” would describe days with “higher than normal” numbers or “lower than normal” numbers.
So you can tally those totals up to figure out if you’ve had more days that are higher than average or more days that are lower than average.
Higher: 7
Lower: 5
The last time we had a day with higher than average numbers was:June 7th
The last time we had a day with lower than average numbers was: May 17th
Days that are “2 Standard Deviations from the mean” are days that are “well above” or “well below” average. We have only had one of those days. It was June 7th with 498 new cases.
Quick Summary
There have been more days with an above-average number of new cases than a below-average number of new cases. Including one day with well-above-average numbers. That means the number of cases per day continues to increase since re-opening.
Deaths
I know this is going to sound cold and heartless, but lets look at the death numbers. No graph here, but the physical numbers.
| Date | Deaths |
| 05/07/20 | 13 |
| 05/08/20 | 12 |
| 05/09/20 | 9 |
| 05/10/20 | 5 |
| 05/11/20 | 22 |
| 05/12/20 | 8 |
| 05/13/20 | 15 |
| 05/14/20 | 13 |
| 05/15/20 | 17 |
| 05/16/20 | 11 |
| 05/17/20 | 7 |
| 05/18/20 | 27 |
| 05/19/20 | 16 |
| 05/20/20 | 10 |
| 05/21/20 | 16 |
| 05/22/20 | 20 |
| 05/23/20 | 9 |
| 05/24/20 | 10 |
| 05/25/20 | 17 |
| 05/26/20 | 18 |
| 05/27/20 | 23 |
| 05/28/20 | 17 |
| 05/29/20 | 13 |
| 05/30/20 | 11 |
| 05/31/20 | 5 |
| 06/01/20 | 28 |
| 06/02/20 | 15 |
| 06/03/20 | 12 |
| 06/04/20 | 9 |
| 06/05/20 | 8 |
| 06/06/20 | 6 |
| 06/07/20 | 20 |
| 06/08/20 | 10 |
The average number o deaths per day is 14, with a standard deviation of 5.94. That means an “average” day is between 8 and 20 deaths (since .94 of a person can’t die).
Below “average” days: 6
Above “average” days: 4
So there have been more below average days than above average days. That is some good news. The only asterisks I have to add is the numbers from the Mississippi Department of Health have noted that some days the tally of deaths was not done accurately. And some deaths were marked one day when they should’ve been on another. So the above-vs-below days data may not be fully accurate. That’s not to say that is has to be worse or it has to be better.
We just don’t know. And we can’t know.
However, knowing that an “average” day is between 8 and 20 deaths should help to put into perspective what the numbers mean when you hear them on the news.
But the sad part is – on average – between 8 and 20 people are dying from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That’s heart-breaking.
I thought things were getting back to normal, though?
They aren’t. And they won’t be for a while. And I know that is depressing to hear. It is depressing to say. I miss my friends, too. I want to go to a baseball game.
But that isn’t a smart thing right now.
But we are continuing to see the numbers of new cases climb. We are continuing to see between 8 and 20 deaths per day from this thing. Just because stores are open does not mean this isn’t a problem anymore. It also doesn’t mean it is “less of a problem” either.
Looking back to the first case in Mississippi, there have been a few dips, but notice that the graph keeps going up.
I know some people (more than I would have ever imagined, truly) have said to me, “yeah but most of the deaths are old people or someone underlying conditions and would die anyway.”
To me, though, that is the most cold-hearted and calloused thing. Just because you are older or just because you have heart trouble or lung trouble or diabetes doesn’t mean you are disposable. No one is.
I’m at high risk. Am I disposable? Your family member with asthma is high risk. Are they disposable? Your uncle who takes heart medication is high risk, is he disposable? Your grandmother who is in her 90s is high risk, are you fine with her death?
My guess, and maybe I’m wrong, would be, “No.”
So if we want to help keep this thing under control and stop the spread, we have to do what the medical community suggests.
What can you do to help?
Right now the CDC and a vast majority of the medical community suggest that wearing a mask and continuing to socially distance will help to slow the spread dramatically. And doing so protects everyone. It protects you from contracting it from others and it helps others from contracting it from you.
Recall that the incubation period is – on average – about five days. But it could take up to 11 days to feel symptoms. And all the while, you have the ability to pass the virus on to others. So even if you feel fine today, that may not tell the whole story.
So, if you want to help get life back to normal the quickest, avoid public places when possible, wash your hands afterward, mask up and keep your distance!
