Study finds treatment reduces the risk of contracting COVID-19 by nearly 75-percent

That treatment is pretty simple: Wear a mask.

In the paper, “The role of community-wide wearing of face mask for control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2” authors looked at a small population of mask-wearing people versus non-mask-wearing people and found a reduction in transmission of 73-percent.

From the paper:

Within first 100 days (31 December 2019 to 8 April 2020), 961 COVID-19 patients were diagnosed in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The COVID-19 incidence in HKSAR (129.0 per million population) was significantly lower (p<0.001) than that of Spain (2983.2), Italy (2250.8), Germany (1241.5), France (1151.6), U.S. (1102.8), U.K. (831.5), Singapore (259.8), and South Korea (200.5). The compliance of face mask usage by HKSAR general public was 96.6% (range: 95.7% to 97.2%). We observed 11 COVID-19 clusters in recreational ‘mask-off’ settings compared to only 3 in workplace ‘mask-on’ settings (p = 0.036 by Chi square test of goodness-of-fit).

Numbers in Mississippi

The above graph shows the number of Newly Positive cases, the estimated number of people still sick, the estimated number of asmyptomatic people, and estimated number of total infected people, the number of deaths, a moving 7-day average of new cases, a moving 7-day average of people still sick, and a moving 7-day average of deaths.

The estimated number of people still sick from COVID in Mississippi is 5,696 people. Leaving an estimated 1,250 people walking around asymptomatic.

The above graph shows only the 7-day running averages for daily new cases and daily deaths. As well as a 14-day running average for daily deaths.

And while the average deaths are being reduced, the average is still around 10 per day.

But my immune system is fine, Nick, I don’t need a mask

It is not only about you, it is about others. Because so many people are asymptomatic or presymptomatic, the goal of people wearing masks to slow the spread of the virus so it can’t infect those who are more susceptible to becoming sick.

You may be one of the estimated 1,250 people who have it and don’t know it. If you and in close-contact with no mask with a neighbors kid, and that kid goes to Grandma’s House this weekend, you may inadvertently be the cause of infection to Grandma.

If so many people are asymptomatic, why does it matter?

That’s a good question. And I can understand the thought-process behind it. The idea being, if everyone is getting this thing and not as many people are getting “sick” and fewer people are dying, then maybe it is okay for us to just go about our lives.

But it isn’t that simple, sadly. I don’t have the research in front of me – I’m still trying to track down the specifics – but there is new research out there that shows that even asymptomatic people end up with lung damage in some cases from COVID-19.

Recent data and research suggest asymptomatic people make up about between 25- and 40-percent of infected people. There is some research, though, that also shows that presymptomatic people (the people who don’t feel sick right now, but will eventually feel sick later) at any given time is as high as about 20-percent of those infected.

That means, if right now there are 100 people who have the virus, 20 people don’t know they have it yet. Another 25 to 40 have it, but show no signs, and will never show signs. And the remaining 40 will get sick. About five of those people will end up in the hospital (based on regional data). Three of those people will die.

Re-rack those numbers

So, think about those numbers when the daily OCIVD-19 totals are released.

For every 100 known-infected people….

— Five end up in the hospital
— Three die
— An additional 20 people have it, but don’t know it yet
— Another 32 are asymptomatic

Or another way to look at it is for every 300 new cases (because that is within the average for new cases in Mississippi daily)…

— 15 of those will end up in the hospital
— Six will end up in the ICU (based on research, here)
— Nine will eventually die
— 60 more cases to develop during the next five days from this one day alone
— 96 people are walking around spreading the virus to others without knowing it

The Bottom Line

This is why doctors, medical researchers, the CDC, WHO, the government, and everyone who has to work with this data on a daily basis is encouraging everyone to wear a mask in public.

Research shows that mask-wearing slows the spread. Slowing the spread saves lives. And it is as much about you as it is about your friends, neighbors and co-workers.