You know me, I like getting my scientific information straight from the people that are hands-on doing the science. That is why I get all of my COVID-19 information from Harvard, Mayo Clinic, Imperial College, Mount Sinai, and a bunch of other colleges and research facilities.
That isn’t to say the information is perfect and is 100-percent accurate. But at least if I get it straight from the researchers, I know the ‘waters’ haven’t been ‘muddied’ by anyone else.
Before I get into some of the new research, I want to wrap some context around some of the daily numbers that a lot of us see.
New Numbers
From the State Department of Health for each state, here are the latest numbers from the five states in the region.
| State | Total Cases | Total Deaths | AVG of Cases/Day |
| Mississippi | 195,500 | 4,411 | (14-Day) 2058 |
| Alabama | 324,832 | 4,389 | (14-Day) 3826 |
| Tennessee | 529,578 | 6,136 | (7-Day) 9,279 |
| Arkansas | 203,107 | 3,295 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 287,261 | 7,107 | (7-Day) 1,896 |
| Regional Total | 1,540,278 | 25,338 |
Those numbers are growing rapidly in most places since Thanksgiving, too. The average case count per day in Mississippi in December has been nearly double the daily case count in November.
Wear a mask, stay – at least – six feet apart
Seriously. Please.
“But nick, my immune system can handle it. I know the risks and I’m willing to take those risks“
While on the surface, that feels like a valid argument. It just isn’t with COVID-19. Because you may be right. Maybe your immune system is fine. And it can fight it off. And you are asymptomatic. Your body is doing a great job of handling the virus.
The problem is that even asymptomatic people can spread this thing. So while you are fine, every time you breath, shout, or sneeze because you got a tickle in your nose – you are spreading the virus to others who may not be as well-equipped to handle the virus.
If you wear a mask, it makes sure fewer of the viruses make it out.
“But Nick, masks don’t stop it all… haven’t you seen that Youtube video?”
I haven’t. But I don’t need to see the video to know that a mask isn’t a silver bullet. Neither is a seat belt. But we wear those. Because it is better than nothing. Same with airbags. Those alone can’t save you. But with a seat belt and an airbag, you are even more likely to survive a rough crash.
That is analogous to wearing a mask and social distancing. Alone, the two may not do it all. But together they are a really good way to save a life.
New Research
Pregnant women studied were asymptomatic carriers
According to a paper published by Mount Sinai researchers titled, “Universal screening for SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant women at Elmhurst Hospital Center, Queens, New York” a good portion of the women who were pregnant and contracted COVID-19 were asymptomatic.
A total of 126 obstetric patients were screened for SARS-CoV-2 between March 29 and April 22. Of these, 37% were positive. Of the women who tested positive, 72% were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to be of Hispanic ethnicity (unadjusted difference 24.4 percentage points, CI 7.9, 41.0) and report their primary language as Spanish (unadjusted difference 32.9 percentage points, CI 15.8, 49.9) than patients who tested negative.
PLOS One
While this is a small sample size, over a short period of time, it does open a door into an area worth more investigation. As many moms-to-be are (rightfully) concerned about their own health and the health of the baby-to-be, too.
“This study is instructive for other labor and delivery units and hospitals across the world as we continue to refine pandemic preparedness,” says Sheela Maru, MD, MPH, Assistant Professor of Global Health, and Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Science, at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “In future epidemics, it may be prudent to look at labor and delivery screening numbers much earlier on, as pregnant women continue to seek essential care despite social distancing measures and also represent the general young and healthy community population.”
Recall that early research we covered here on the site talked about how some pregnant women ended up as asymptomatic carriers and were responsible for potentially exposing doctors and nurses without their knowledge.
Mayo Clinic says Vaccines are safe
The MAyo Clinic, which is known for being a leading research facility and the go-to place for getting accurate medical information pointed out that despite the speed at which tehse vaccines were created, they are still safe.
Many pharmaceutical companies invested significant resources into quickly developing a vaccine for COVID-19 because of the worldwide effects of the pandemic. The emergency situation warranted an emergency response, but that doesn’t mean that companies bypassed safety protocols or performed inadequate testing.
Mayo Clinic recommends the use of vaccines that we are confident are safe. While there are many COVID-19 vaccine candidates in development, the Pfizer vaccine is the first authorized for emergency use by the FDA. This vaccine was created using new technology based on the molecular structure of the virus that allows it to be free from materials of animal origin and synthesized by an efficient, cell-free process without preservatives. This vaccine developed by Pfizer/BioNTecH has been studied in approximately 43,000 people.
To receive emergency use authorization, the biopharmaceutical manufacturer must have followed at least half of the study participants for at least two months after completing the vaccination series, and the vaccine must be proven safe and effective in that population.
In addition to the safety review by the FDA, the Advisory Committee on Immunization has convened a panel of experts to independently evaluate the safety data from the clinical trial. Mayo Clinic vaccine experts also will review the available data. The safety of COVID-19 vaccines will continue to be closely monitored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the FDA.
mayoclinic.org
After reading more about the research and efforts put into developing, testing and distributing these vaccines, I’ve learned that medicine is a lot like weather forecasting in a way. They may such big strides every year (like weather forecasting) with how they can develop and distribute medicines and vaccines that saying, “yeah, well 20 years ago they said that, too and it didn’t turn out that way” is like saying a meteorologist got a forecast wrong 20 years ago, so you can’t trust a forecast today.
The Mayo Clinic also pointed out that even if people are having side effects, that isn’t, necessarily, a bad thing.
COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to have short-term mild or moderate vaccine reactions that resolve without complication or injury.
The early phase studies of the Pfizer vaccine show that it is safe. About 15% of people developed short-lived symptoms at the site of the injection. Half developed systemic reactions, primarily headache, chills, fatigue or muscle pain or fever lasting a day or two.
Keep in mind that these side effects indicate that your immune system is responding to the vaccine and are common when receiving vaccines.
MAYOCLINIC.ORG
The Mayo clinic also pointed out that even if you get the vaccine it may still be possible for you to shed the virus and pass it along to others. But at this point the medical researcher just don’t know. That is the tough thing with a new virus. Sometimes there are unknowns to tackle.
Harvard Medical weighs in on Moderna vaccine
Recently, the FDA granted emergency use authorization (EUA) to an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine developed by Moderna. According to the CDC, mRNA vaccines work by instructing cells in the body how to make a protein that triggers an immune response. This particular mRNA vaccine was created in collaboration with scientists from the NIH.
In briefing documents submitted to the FDA, the Moderna vaccine showed an overall efficacy of 94.1% in preventing COVID-19. This study enrolled 30,400 adults; half received the vaccine, half received a saltwater placebo shot. There were 196 infections among the study participants. Of these, 185 were in the placebo group and 11 were in the vaccine group. All 30 cases of severe COVID occurred in the placebo group, strongly suggesting indicating that the vaccine reduces risk of severe illness.
The vaccine was similarly effective in people older and younger than 65, in men and women, in people with and without medical conditions that put them at high risk for severe illness, and in different racial and ethnic groups.
The most common vaccine side effects were pain at the injection site, fatigue, headache, muscle pain, joint pain, and chills.
This vaccine requires two doses, spaced four weeks apart. We do not yet know how long immunity from this vaccine will last.
health.harvard.edu
That last line is an important one. The vaccines that are being developed have an unknown “shelf life” in your system. As we don’t have any evidence to show this would create a life-long immunity, or one that lasts a year. Or even just six weeks.
New England Journal of Medicine vaccine discussion
Three editors from the Journal talk about the vaccines and the illness in depth.
COVID-19 in mutating, perhaps spreading faster
This has been the buzz during the last few days in Europe. Researchers are noting that a new strain of COVID-19 has developed and there are some new data that suggest the following…
- The new variant is more transmissible, in general
- The new variant is more transmissible by children
- The new variant may not be as detectable by certain tests
Keep in mind that data ‘suggesting’ certain things does not make those things certain. This is why we invented Science 500 years ago! To make sure what the data was saying, was actually what was happening.
To that end, here are some words from Harvard Medical about mutations and variants.
Like other viruses, the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 — SARS-CoV-2 — cannot survive without a living cell in which to reproduce. Once it enters human cells, SARS-CoV-2 churns out copies of itself, which go on to infect other cells. Sometimes, a mistake is made when the virus is replicating. This is called a mutation. A mutation that is rapidly spreading in England is causing concern.
This new variant of the coronavirus was first detected in September. By mid-December, it was identified in two-thirds of coronavirus cases in and around London.
This variant contains mutations on the virus’s spike proteins. These are proteins on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that bind to and allow the virus to enter human cells. There is some laboratory evidence that the mutations might increase the ability of the virus to infect human cells. However, this is not known for certain. The new variant does not appear to be deadlier than other variants.
Mutations of coronaviruses, like all viruses, are to be expected. Experts think it is very unlikely that mutations that could make the vaccines ineffective would happen this quickly.
It’s also possible that the rapid spread of this variant was due to human behavior rather than, or in addition to, any change in the virus itself. This again underscores the importance of wearing masks, physical distancing, and avoiding crowds while vaccine production ramps up.
Earlier this year, another mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus — the D614G variant —quickly surpassed the original virus and became the most prevalent form of the virus seen around the world.
health.harvard.edu
You are likely to see a lot of scary headlines in the coming days about this – if you haven’t already. But for now, there are still unknowns with regard to specifics.
An epidemiologist from Harvard was tweeting about mutating viruses and here is a piece from his thread.
Again, and I really want to stress this, just because we don’t know something doesn’t mean we won’t ever know something. One thing I’ve really harped on since the start of this is that “Science takes time” and we won’t always have all of the answers right away. And sometimes our original answers end up being changed down the line when a new way of addressing an issue is realized.
That is how Science works.
New Quarantine rules
The new quarantine rules from the CDC are a good example of Science taking time. The original data suggested a longer quarantine was always needed. Because the scientific communitiy didn;t have enough evidence to support any other options.
Now there is more data. And the guidance can change.
The new guidance is as follows…
| Length of Quarantine when you receive a positive test result: |
| At least 14 Days if symptomatic (with 24 hours of no fever without using medication) |
| At least 10 days if asymptomatic |
| At least 7 days, if on Day 5 you test negative |
I don’t have all the answers
No one does. We are all working through this the best we can and trying to make the best decisions to keep the most people safe.
I know a lot of folks are anxious and antsy after nearly a full year of limited social activity and wearing a mask, and washing hands constantly.
I am one of those people.
But it is important that we all continue to follow the CDC guidelines, our local state guidelines and do the best we can to keep ourselves and others safe.
