Radar coverage continues to show rain moving through the area and, so far, it remains as just regular rain and thunder. So far the severe weather threat hasn’t fully materialized for our area, which is why I tried to stay pretty conservative on the forecast. There was a concern it may take a while for the severe threat to show up. And there is still some question if it will ever fully develop.
There is a little batch of thunderstorm activity that just moved ashore and will push through the area during the next two hours. That means the rain and storms are going to pick up again between 8p and 11p tonight for Louisiana and Mississippi.
What’cha need to know (from earlier)
Timeline
Not much has changed here, either. But I still think the two hours of wiggle room on each end of the timeline below is needed.
Keep in mind, due to the nature of this event, the timeline does not indicate how long it will be raining. Instead it indicates the timeline for the highest risk for the threat for severe weather.
10a – 2p: Mainly a Texas and Louisiana issue
2p – 6p: Eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi
6p – 10p: Mainly southern Mississippi
10p – 2a: Southern Mississippi and western Alabama
2a – 6a: Mainly in Alabama and the Florida panhandle
Expectations
–- Heavy rain and gusty wind will accompany nearly every rain shower and thunderstorm. Wind will be sustained at greater than 10mph in general through the afternoon. Wind gusts will exceed 30mph in most rain showers and would be up to 75mph in the strongest thunderstorms.
— There will be some localized flooding, with water coming up in people’s yards and the creeks may rise a bit for a short period of time during some of the heavy rain within the rainbands.
–- Power outages will be likely. Prepare to be without power for up to 12 hours. The combination of a constant breeze and higher gusts as well as some of the rain means trees are likely to come down.
–- Based on the latest available data, this will not be a widespread catastrophic event for our area. But a some places will still see damage from gusty wind, downed trees and possible tornadoes.
Threats
The main concerns with storms today will include…
- Heavy rain
- Localized flash flooding
- Frequent lightning
- Wind gusts up to 75mph
- Hail up the size of quarters
- A few tornadoes
Tornado potential
The tornado threat will likely be confined – mostly – to Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. The SPC has placed that are under a 10-percent tornado risk. The 5-percent risk stretches into Alabama.
The above map shows where the strongest storms of the day after looking at the morning guidance. This doesn’t necessarily mean those areas will see a tornado, but if there is going to be one, most likely it will be with the strongest storms.
So if you live inside one of those circled areas – or near one – keep an extra close eye to the sky.
While the rest of southern Mississippi and Alabama remain in a 5-percent tornado risk area, as noted by the data above and the SPC discussion, the potential for tornadoes to develop is going to be conditional.
Another way to think about it is we have all the ingredients to make a tornado, the question is if all of those things can line up in the right place at the right time to make it happen. And that is something we can’t know.
