South Mississippi Forecast: April 26th

So far it looks like the next few days will be pretty nice. A few passing clouds here and there, but generally sunny with highs in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. It will be a bit more humid in the coming days as the wind shift back around to the south off the Gulf, but we won’t start to ‘feel’ it until Wednesday, most likely.

Severe Weather Outlook

The threat for severe weather during the next 10 days looks low. Right now it looks like Thursday/Friday may pose a potential for severe weather, but rain and wind would be the main concern. The tornado threat appears to be very low as the low-level and mid-level wind shear and helicity just don’t appear to be very favorable for the development of tornadoes.

Rainfall Outlook

During the next five days the only threat for rain looks to be on Thursday and Friday. Some of that shower activity may linger into the weekend, but during the next five days, Thursday and Friday look to be it.

Rainfall totals should be held to between 1/2″ and 3″ in total between now and Friday night. The difference between the two numbers will depend on if your area gets underneath some of the stronger storms on Thursday/Friday.

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Day-by-Day forecast

Today
Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds through the day. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight
Clouds continue to increase, but it will still be partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Tuesday
Passing clouds, but nice. A bit humid with highs in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday
Another day with passing clouds and a brief chance for a shower ahead of the next system. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. The chance for rain is around 10-percent.

Wednesday Night
It should remain dry through the overnight hours despite the increasing cloud cover. Lows in the mid 60s.

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Thursday
This looks like the first good shot for rain during the week. Clouds will continue to stream overhead with a 40-percent chance for showers and storms. Highs in the mid 80s. As of now the risk for severe weather looks to be low, but not zero. Storms may linger through the overnight hours with the main concern being heavy rain, frequent lightning and wind gusts up to 50mph.

Friday
Depending on the timeline for storms, it looks like rain may continue into Friday morning for some spots. So far, we’ll call for about a 40-percent chance of rain. Highs will be a bit cooler, in the upper 70s.

The difference between the GFS and the ECMWF model guidance is about 12-24 hours. The above graphic shows the ECMWF data with a “slower” evolution of the rain event. While the GFS is quicker and kicks the rain out of the area by Friday morning.

Saturday
Looks drier for the weekend, but not completely dry. Some model guidance continues to show a lingering boundary in the area offering a slight chance for showers and storms. For now, we’ll leave a 20-percent shot for rain. Highs in the mid 70s.

Sunday
Sunday is looking a lot like Saturday with a you-can’t-quite-rule-it-out chance for rain (a 20-percent shot). Highs in the upper 70s.

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The Bottom Line

A pretty pleasant week, all things considered, as we close out April. Thursday and Friday look to be the best bet for rain. And given that the rain doesn’t look overly “floody” and the data doesn’t appear to support widespread severe weather, it may be a good time to throw down some fertilizer on the yard as the rain later this week may help to soak it in, instead of having it end up washing away.

In general, the severe weather season is winding down as we look toward Hurricane Season. The threat for tornadoes should start to become lower as we head into and through May.