Showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening as a front moves through the area. This front is a bit stronger than most fronts that move through the Southeast this time of year. But it will be losing a lot of punch as it passes. While strong to severe storms are possible, and a tornado or two can’t be ruled out, thankfully this doesn’t look – at this point – like some kind of severe weather outbreak.
Currently I’m more concerned about wind and hail than I am about flooding and tornadoes.
Severe Weather Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has pegged the area with an Enhanced Risk for severe weather.
Underneath that, while there is a “5-percent” tornado risk, there is a “45-percent” wind risk.
SPC Discussion:
…Southeast and northern Gulf Coast…
A couple of thunderstorm clusters/MCSs are forecast this morning across the OH Valley south-southwestward into the lower MS Valley and east TX near the aforementioned surface boundary. The risk for damaging gusts will probably accompany one or more of these thunderstorm clusters given moderate instability and a moisture-rich airmass. Model guidance varies considerably regarding the evolution of a probable thunderstorm cluster located over KY/TN during the morning.A portion of this convective band may continue into northern AL/GA and be aided by the nose of a 35-kt LLJ situated over MS at daybreak. It is less clear if storms rejuvenate farther east near the Cumberland Gap and parts of VA/NC during the day or if the focus for thunderstorms is shunted farther south over GA/Carolinas. Given a very moist and very unstable airmass sampled Monday night along the northern Gulf Coast (reference the 00 UTC Slidell, LA raob featuring an 18 g/kg mean mixing ratio and 3500 J/kg MLCAPE), it is plausible a couple of organized thunderstorm bands will develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle.
The m-shaped hodographs due in part to the positive-tilt character of the mid-level trough, in combination with high PW, will favor upscale growth with developing storms. It appears a swath of damaging gusts is most probable from parts of MS east through parts of AL. A gradual diminishing in thunderstorm intensity is expected by the mid evening hours.
Courtesy: spc.noaa.gov
The veer-back-veer profile, or “m-shaped hodograph” mentioned about may limit the top-end severe limit of storms, but will not diminish the threat for overall severe weather.
Timeline & Threats
Right now it looks like storms will move through the area during the afternoon and evening. The main concerns are heavy rain, frequent lightning (a lot of it), wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of golf balls, and the potential for a few brief tornadoes (up to EF-2 in strength).
Any tornado that develops would be embedded within the line. This type of setup is not one that is as conducive to the development of supercells ahead of the line of storms – and that is good news! The bad news is the ’embedded within the line’ type of tornadoes are usually rain-wrapped and you can’t really see them coming. So make sure you have your NOAA Weather Radio ready to go and nearby and make sure you have a good app on your phone that will alert you when a new warning is issued.
Day-by-Day Forecast
Today
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. The chance of rain near 100-percent.
Tonight
Thunderstorms likely and a chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 20-percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Friday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Sunday
A 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Monday
A 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
The Bottom Line
Showers and storms are possible today, some may be severe, but not everyone will get severe weather. Some folks will just get some rain, lightning and wind. Others may see large hail, and a very select few will experience a tornado-warned storm.
Just have your NOAA Weather Radio handy and keep an ear out for warnings from the NWS.
This will all pass through the area between about 1p and 9p. Any lingering storms overnight may be thunderous, but wouldn’t pose much of a severe weather risk.
Will be interesting to see ‘what’s what’ with the timing of the line moving through. You, WDAM, and the NWS all say it’ll come through later this afternoon, after 3 or 4 PM. However, the WDAM Weather App has, consistently, shown it moving through around noon. I guess we’ll see how that ends up.
Thank you Nick. I really appreciate that you’re still looking out for us . WDAM lost a truly fantastic Meteorologist! Thankfully though We pedestrians here in Ms still have your steady guiding hand to inform us through these events.
Hope your new job is going well. THANK YOU for continuing to look after us with the potential severe weather coming in.