That was a lot of water. Rainfall totals yesterday topped out between 3″ and 6″ with the heaviest totals in Perry and Jones counties as well as Marion, Jeff Davis and Covington counties.
The good news is rainfall totals today from any showers and storms should be much – much! – lower.
Scattered storms today and tomorrow will be mainly the afternoon summertime variety. Some of the strongest storms will feature some brief heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty wind. But today storms will be a bit more isolated in nature, instead of being a large cluster of storms. Same with tomorrow.
The overall pattern starts to shift.
That flip means that things will be drying out temporarily as we head toward this weekend and into next week. We may still have a chance here or there for a wayward shower or storm, but the potential will be much lower than it has been the last few days.
All of that being said the overall upper-level pattern setting up is one that points anything in the tropics toward the central Gulf. So, take the good with the bad.
Tropical Note
Speaking of the tropics, there is a new area to watch in the southern Caribbean. The NHC has paste this with a 20-percent chance for development during the next five days. Even so, this would not be an issue for anyone in the US until late next week.
Historically, this is not the most favorable place for development, but we will have a few things converging in the area and the upper-levels are going to support some sort of development and there will be a kelvin wave swinging through the same area and the mid-levels will allow an alleyway north toward the Gulf.
That alleyway is also shown on the EPS data above with the blue-shaded area indicating an increased chance of lower pressure near the Gulf Coast by late next week.
How bad will this be?
Too soon to tell specifically. But if history is a guide, this will be a rainmaker with some wind and a bit of surge. Often June systems are rain-makers and tropical tornado-producers, not Category 5 terrain-mowers.
But we will continue to monitor things and let you know if anything changes.
Dat-to-Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy with passing showers and storms. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Tonight
A 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Tuesday
Another partly cloudy day with passing showers and storms. The chance of rain 50-percent. Highs in the upper 80s. And the NWS mentioned the highest heat index values will be around 100. Drink water if you’re going to be outside!
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
This is probably the last day with a ‘good’ chance for rain. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Thursday
Passing clouds with a 20-percent chance for storms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Go AWAY~~~ DON’T YOU LIVE IN HOUSTON NOW? NOBODY CARES WHAT YOU THINK MAN.
‘I’ care what you think! I’m glad to see the rain FINALLY coming to an end! I’m ‘not’ glad, however, to see the potential tropical threat. I, like you, think it’s a little early for anything developing in the Gulf but I’ll watch it with you. PLEASE, keep the daily updates coming!!