7/3/21 130PM Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Elsa

Tropical Storm Elsa is, well, a Tropical Storm… again. After a brief existence as a Hurricane, the system has moved into a less-favorable environment and weakened back to a Tropical Storm. The Hurricane Hunters have already been in and out of this system a few times and the data

Part of Elsa’s problem is that the storm is in quite the hurry. Much like Hurricane Nate in 2017 and Hurricane Zeta last season, this thing is bookin’.

Courtesy: nhca.noaa.gov

The current forecast track takes Elsa across the mountains of Cuba and up the west coast of the Florida peninsula. And then out to sea after potentially cruising across Georgia and the Carolinas.



Model data

And the model guidance is pretty set on that, too.

Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

While there is some spread, between the models, the general idea is that this will be a storm that curls back and doesn’t really threaten the Gulf.

And the model intensity guidance is also much more muted today than previously.

Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

A lot of that is due to the increased forward speed and the increased shear.



Over on windy.com (a fun weather website) the supper-air pattern shows a few key thigns to help keep this thing out of the Gulf.

500mb wind speed and direction // Courtesy: Windy.com

You can see where Elsa is near Haiti and the Dominican Republic. There is also a ridge to the northeast, and a trough to the northwest. A little more difficult to see is a a little upper-level Low near the Yucatan. As well as a small wave back in behind Elsa.

500mb map with a few key items diagrammed // Courtesy: Windy.com

The black dashed lines are the, generally, widest options for forecast track given the upper-level flow. What I didn’t draw, but it still a potential, is that Elsa gets torn apart by shear and the Islands and crawls into the eastern Gulf as a shell of its former self. And it simply a rainmaker for south Florida.



The Bottom Line

No real concern to South Mississippi at this time. And there isn’t much out there within the data to support any level of concern at this time.

As with most tropical systems, “never say never” applies. But for now, and I think for the entirety of the forecast, this one won’t be a major concern for the Western or Central Gulf Coast.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.

One thought on “7/3/21 130PM Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Elsa

  1. Certainly don’t wish it ‘here’, but this is the LAST thing south Florida needs, especially the Miami area!

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