A few things happened overnight with Fred. Frist off, Fred is a Tropical Strom again. And it is headed toward the Florida panhandle. Again.
The center of Fred reformed under an explosion of convection well back to the north / north-northeast of where everything was centered yesterday. On top of that, since the center was pulled north, the whole track for Fred has shifted with it.
The forecast track from the NHC is now back closer to Florida and Alabama again.
Even the model guidance is back onboard, and in pretty decent agreement. Most of the forecast tracks take this ashore near Pensacola, Florida.
So, what gives? Why all the short-term confusion during the day yesterday?
Liek always, I won’t claim to be any kind of Tropical Meteorology guru, but after studying satellite imagery, it looks like the upper-level low that was scooting through Florida gave a bit of a ‘Fujiwara’ tug to the convection that was erupting on the northern side of Fred. That explosion of convection pulled the center of Fred toward that convection, which was itself being pulled north (and even a bit northeast).
So As the low-level center was pulled that direction, a new mid-level center also formed in the same area. And BAM! Fred 2.0 was born.
Right now, I think intensity models are probably under-cutting the top-end strength for Fred.
Most guidance shows a mid-range Tropical Storm at landfall. And while landfall is looking like it will occur in about 24-36 hours, I still think Fred will manage to jump to a stronger Tropical Storm than currently shown in the guidance.
Not Rapid Intensification type stuff, I tend to trust that data.
But just stronger than being shown. And that is what the NHC may be thinking, too. While the guidance shows a nearly-zero chance that Fred puts down 50kt wind. The NHC is showing a 10- to 30-percent chance.
In general, it looks like my forecast from four days ago will still hold. It looks like most of the impacts will occur for folks in Florida, Alabama and Georgia.
Potential impacts
Here is some great info pulled straight from the National Hurricane Center…
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.9 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Through Monday…
Florida Keys and southern Florida… 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated.
Through Tuesday…
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle… 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas… 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary.
Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River…2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay… 1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle.
South Mississippi notes
This looks to have shifted back to the east of south Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. Some breezy conditions may prevail starting tomorrow morning through Tuesday with occasional passing tropical showers from feeder bands.
But otherwise, at this time, continue to monitor the forecast to make sure greater impacts aren’t anticipated for your specific location.
8/16/21….
(….™bows head”/moment of silence honouring Elvis, ’cause..,). Anyhow, THANKS, Nick. Been keeping an eye on both Fred, and Grace…. East of Petal could use a smol drizzle or two, but; I’m not ready to lose any shingles. Barometer on ye olde WX watch is fairly accurate with your own data. So…I’m gonna draw out a chart for Gracie, and wait…. Gotta love August in MS.