Hit and miss showers and storms will be possible again today. Coverage was a bit more robust yesterday than I anticipated, so I’m bumping up the chance for rain a bit for today. The ‘big picture’ weather pattern that i set up for us right now is something we usually see in January not September.
This pattern in January leads to warmer and more humid conditions – often ahead of a chance for severe weather when a potent cold front arrives.
In September, since potent cold fronts aren’t on the docket yet, we just end up with better chances for rain each day until the ridge to our east decides to mosey on out. But because the area is on the edge – between the ridge and the rain – it won’t be ‘totally dry’ nor ‘totally wet’ on any day.
The interesting wrinkle is that there may be days where the ridge to the east flexes its muscle a bit more than other days and the area is a bit drier. Right now, it looks like Friday and Saturday may be slightly drier because of this.
Tropical Update
Despite a lot of action in the Tropics, the action isn’t pointed toward the Gulf.
There are three areas of interest, along with Hurricane Sam, but all of those areas look to remain out to sea.
As we transition into later in the year, we actually need to be watching things a bit closer to home. Here is a look at all of the tropical systems that have made landfall in October in the region as well as where they formed.
Important to note that there has been a tropical system that has moved through this area in three of the last four years.
2020 – Hurricane Zeta
2019 – Tropical Storm Olga
2018 – (nothing)
2017 – Hurricane Nate
Prior to 2017, though, the last time an October storm impacted the region was 2004. Before that? 1984.
So while things have been active recently, historically, October isn’t an active month of the region.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Patchy fog is possible this morning with a few patches of drizzle and some showers. The fog may clear out, but it looks like mostly cloudy conditions will prevail today. Rainfall will be most active between 1p and 8p. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
The best best for rain is in the parishes of Louisiana and up the I-55 corridor. But everywhere is truly fair game for rain.
Tonight
Some fog, otherwise cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with more showers and storms possible. One round will be possible in the morning between 8a and 11a and another round in the afternoon between 2p and 7p. Highs in the lower 80s. The chance of rain 70-percent.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Friday
Patchy fog in the morning. Drier and mostly sunny by afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance for rain will be around 20-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Monday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s.
