Good news and bad news.
The Good News
The good news is that the overall environment ahead of the main line of showers and storms isn’t quite potent enough to worry about significant severe weather. Sure, stronger storms and maybe even some severe-warned storms or a torando warning are possible. But not likely. And even if a tornado warning is issued, we are not looking at the likelihood of a long-track and devastating tornado.
Any tornado tonight will be brief and weak. Looking at the parameters (above) you can ask, “is this helping to product tornadoes?” And then you look at the parameters and you are missing some important ingredients – particularly with instability.
Can brief tornadoes cause damage? Sure. They can still knock down trees, fences, and cause damage to roofs. But they won’t level entire neighborhoods or suck folks out their chimneys.
The Bad News
The bad news is that showers and storms have lined up across Louisiana and they are marching east, and will bring with them very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, some small hail and the potential for a brief and weak tornado or two.
There are currently Severe Thunderstorm Warnings up and down this line of storms from the Gulf Coast all the way up to nearly I-20. So if you’re living in the region asking, “what will the weather be like at my house?” you can assume it will be rather stormy with heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, with perhaps some small hail and the potential for a tornado.
This line will be moving through the region between now and about 10pm tonight. The start of the storms will depend on where you live, the farther west, the earlier, the farther east the later.
The Bottom Line
Storms will pass through the region during the next six hours with some pretty heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind hail and the potential to produce a tornado or two. This won’t be a ‘significant’ severe weather event. I know sometimes it may feel that way with all of the lightning and thunder, the dark clouds and the gusty wind. But generally, this will be a pretty tame event for Mississippi standards.
I know many folks ask, “if I’m in a Mobile Home do I need to leave?”
Most of you will probably be fine where you are living. But I can’t really answer that.
This isn’t a day where a general answer will work. Because it isn’t a day with significant weather anticipated. It will depend on your particular situation. are you surrounded by dying trees? Are they really tall? Do you live in a valley? Do you live on a hill? Is your Mobile Home tied down? Is it just up on bricks? There are many many many factors that go into the ‘am I safe?”
So, I always say, if you don’t feel comfortable where you are, find somewhere that does make you feel safe.
