The Storm Prediction Center has held the Marginal and Slight Risk for severe weather for parts of the region.
Model guidance is running a bit more “hot” today (meaning it looks like a slightly better parameter space for storms to develop) than yesterday, but things are still not jumping off the screen at me to suggest any kind of widespread severe weather outbreak.
I ran the Karrie Meter (no map today, sorry) and it kicked back a 3.13.
That converts back to a 1.56 on the SPC scale, which is a Marginal to Slight Risk. I will say the Tornado Risk number that I use came back at a 0.90. And historically there is a higher risk for tornadoes when that number is higher than the Karrie Meter number and the tornado risk is lower when it is lower than the Karrie Meter number.
So the risk is lower today, but it also isn’t zero. So keep tabs on the weather through the day.
Storms will be moving though the area between 10a and 4p. During peak heating, which is probably why the models are thinkign things may be a bit more robust than they were thinking yesterday. But as you can see from the images above, ‘more robust’ doesn’t, necessarily, mean terrible severe.
Timeline: 10a-4p
Line Movement: Northwest to Southeast
Individual Storm motion: South-southwest to North-northeast
Main Threats: Heavy Rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, hail up to the size of quarters, a brief and weak tornado (EF1 or weaker)
Other Concerns: None, really – this is a typical cool season low-end severe weather event
Today
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms passing through the area midday. A Marginal Risk for severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for most of the area. Highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight
Cloudy, cooler. Lows around 50.
Tuesday
Cloudy with showers possible. Cooler. Highs around 60. The chance for rain 30-percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Lows around 50. Chance for rain looks to be around 30-percent
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Highs in the mid 60s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain 20-percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Friday
Mostly cloudy with showers possible. Highs in the upper 70s. The chance of rain 20-percent.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with rain possible before midnight. After frontal passage, much cooler. Lows in the mid 40s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs around 60.
