Just a short forecast today, because there really isn’t much to day.
The unsettled pattern continues as the front that tried to push through last night sets up nearby for a few days. The next real system wont be here until late Friday and into Saturday, but we will still see off and on chances for rain each day between now and then.
There is the potential for some severe weather with that next system, but right now it looks pretty marginal at this point. The eventual impacts will be dictated by how close an area of low-level low pressure can form. And so far, the answer is “not very close” so the threat appears “not as high” at this point.
From the SPC
Tuesday Discussion:
At this point, the best potential for organized severe thunderstorms may exist over the lower/mid MS Valley during the day Friday, as ascent associated with the previously mentioned embedded shortwave trough overspreads this region. Regardless, there remain too many potentially limiting factors to include 15% severe probabilities for Day 4/Friday at this time.
Namely, the overall positive tilt to the upper trough and considerable amount of front-parallel flow which may tend to undercut thunderstorms, uncertainty over early-day convection contaminating the warm sector, and continued differences in guidance regarding the strength/placement of the low-level jet, particularly with southward extent.
Even with these uncertainties, a broad area of at least marginal/isolated severe potential is evident for Day 4/Friday from parts of the Southeast to the OH Valley, and inclusion of some severe probabilities will likely be needed in the next outlook update.
This marginal/isolated severe risk may persist into Day 5/Saturday as the upper trough moves from the central to eastern CONUS. There is even more uncertainty with eastward extent regarding sufficient low-level moisture return to support robust convection, as thunderstorms along the eastward-advancing cold front will probably outpace the already weak instability.
Even so, some severe threat may continue on Day 5/Saturday from portions of the Southeast into the OH/TN Valleys and perhaps the adjacent southern/central Appalachians. Once the surface cold front clears the East Coast by Day 6/Sunday, severe potential appears very low across the CONUS through the rest of the forecast period.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Cloudy with a 30-percent chance of showers. Highs around 60.
Tonight
Cloudy. Lows around 55.
Wednesday
Clearing skies. Warmer. Highs in the upper 60s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers. Highs in the mid 70s. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for drizzle or light rain. Warmer. Lows in the mid 60s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy. Highs around 80.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy with some light rain possible overnight. Lows in the upper 60s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for storms as a cold front passes through the area. Severe weather is possible, but a widespread severe weather outbreak looks unlikely. Highs in the upper 70s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Saturday Night
Chance of showers in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Lows in the lower 40s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Sunday
Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Cooler. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
