While we prepare to ring in 2022, The forecast for today is pretty uneventful. Warm? Very. Perhaps record-breaking heat. But nothing crazy.
But Mother Nature is saying, ‘Let’s start 2022 with a bang!” sadly. Another round of severe weather looks possible for parts of the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk for severe weather across some of the same areas that have been experiencing severe weather during the last week.
That means that the worst o the severe weather will be north of the Southern MS/AL/LA region. The Enhanced Risk is across eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, Tennessee, a sliver of Georgia, and southern Kentucky.
To the south, the atmospheric parameters just aren’t as potent. Looking at the forecast soundings, there is a lot of speed shear and some instability, but there isn’t as much low-level forcing, no directional shear, and not as much helicity.
And as I showed the other day, the numbers shown in the sounding above, just doesn’t line up with the historical averages that give the area a true threat for severe weather.
And the model guidance for the estimated radar reflects that fact.
Notice that the coverage of storms is pretty meager on Saturday night. It looks like right now, there won’t be some big line of storms that pushes through the area. Instead, it will be here and there showers and storms, some may be strong, very few will be severe. Then a thin line of storms will pass through the area overnight.
At any time, a storm may be able to strengthen past severe limits. However, the overall setup is not one that is conducive for every storms to strengthen. It will take the right storm, in the right place at the right time.
Looking at the animation of the estimated radar from the HRRR shows that most of the storm activity will be farther north.
As you can tell, this doesn’t look like a “big” event for the Southern MS/AL/LA region. However, given the atmosphere, there is still a chance for a severe storm or two.
And the main threats from storms Saturday night look to be
– Heavy rain
– Frequent lightning
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Hail up to the size up half dollars
– A brief, weak tornado
The timeline is between about 6p Saturday night and about 3a on Sunday morning.
Today
Mostly cloudy in the late morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. A little breezy. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
Patchy fog. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
New Years Day
Partly cloudy with showers and storms likely in the afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe. Breezy. Highs around 80. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. The chance of rain 80 percent.
Saturday Night
Storms ending by midnight. Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph turning to the northwest and gusting up to 25 mph in the evening. The chance of rain 80 percent.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the mid 60s. Breezy. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the upper 20s.
Monday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the lower 50s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Warmer. Lows in the lower 40s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. The chance of rain 30 percent.
