Chilly start this morning, with most folks waking up in the 30s. But if that is too cold for you, I have good news, a south wind today will be pumping in some warmer air.
Of course, when we start pumping in warmer air in February, everyone knows what that means – storms. And wouldn’t you know it, we have some in the forecast later this week.
By Wednesday some showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will develop but as a cold front approaches on Thursday, we should see showers and storms develop that pack a bit more punch.
Checking with the CIPS Analogs, and both the historical chance and probabilistic outlook suggest severe weather will be possible.
But neither show anything significant or overly potent.
This is because the atmosphere won’t exactly be “ripe” for severe weather. Instead, a lot like the last system through the region, there will be barely enough juice to squeeze out a few severe storms.
The forecast soundings aren’t overly robust, either. The Euro model does show a bit more instability as it has a secondary warm front lifting north. While the GFS says just one warm front and a not as much instability.
And if there is one thing I’ve learned while forecast for the region: Secondary warm fronts are tough to nail down. But generally, they struggle to develop and move inland,
That is why the severe threat remains pretty limited at this time.
Even the SPC is unimpressed:
In the absence of stronger height falls, surface cyclogenesis will remain weak on Thursday, and upper forcing for ascent nebulous. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow ahead of the cold front will result in 60s F surface dewpoints across much of the Deep South. Widespread cloud cover, ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms, and poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude strong destabilization across the region, though around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across far southeast LA into coastal MS/AL. While a couple of strong storms can not be ruled out, the overall pattern appears to favor an anafrontal/heavy rain scenario across the northern Gulf Coast vicinity, though Marginal severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks along the southeast LA/coastal MS/AL vicinity on Thursday.
So, for the moment, it is something to watch, but not something to be too concerned about.
Today
Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Tuesday
Increasing clouds. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Warmer. Lows in the upper 50s. The chance of rain 30-percent.
Wednesday
Cloudy with hit and miss showers possible. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the morning. The chance of rain 40-percent.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
Thursday
Cloudy, mild and humid. Showers and storms possible in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe. Highs in the lower 70s. The chance of rain 80-percent.
Thursday Night
Cloudy with rain ending after midnight. Much cooler. Lows in the lower 40s. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Friday
Clearing skies and cooler. Highs in the upper 40s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s.
