Warmer and breezy is going to be the name of the game today. You may see some ‘ground sweat’ today, too with a south wind off the Gulf and temperatures around 70.
Ground sweat, Nick?
Yeah, this is a very super-scientific term. Very sciencey. This is the term for when the dewpoint of the air is higher than the temperature of the ground and water condensates on the pavement in places.
A really good indicator that it is going to rain – and perhaps storm – within the next three days along the Gulf Coast is seeing ground sweat.
And wouldn’t you guess it, rain – and storms! – is in the forecast. As is the potential for a few severe storms.
The maps above, from Pivotal Weather, highlight the chance for a few showers and storms starting today and lasting through Thursday night.
Looking at Thursday, as a cold front passes through, there will be the chance for a few storms that may strengthen past severe limits. The timeline on this potential looks to be Thursday afternoon, evening and into the overnight hours. The main concern at this point is heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a brief tornado.
I ran the Karrie Meter and you can get an idea about how low-end the risk is.
Recall on Easter Sunday of 2020 these maps had yellows, oranges, red and purples. This time they are barely showing green.
So we can’t rule out severe weather at this point, but things will be pretty conditional. If you aren’t sitting under the right conditions, you’re likely looking at rain, thunder and just some gusty wind.
Oh, and did I mention rain? Model guidance is showing the potential for 2″ to 4″ of rain by the time things are all said and done. So we may see some ponding on the roads and in yards.
The good news is that we clear out the riff raff by Friday and have a good looking weekend.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Increasing clouds with a 20-percent chance of light rain in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15mph. Gusts up to 25mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Cloudy, warmer and still a bit breezy. A few showers are possible. Lows around 60. Chance for rain around 30-percent. Southeast winds 10 to 15mph and gusty.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms possible. Still breezy. Highs around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15mph with gusts up to 25mph. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with more rain possible. Lows in the lower 60s. The chance of rain 40- percent.
Thursday
Cloudy with showers and storms likely. Breezy. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance for rain around 80-percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25mph.
Thursday Night
Storms ending around midnight. Cloudy. Much cooler. Lows around 40. The chance of rain 60-percent.
Friday
Mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Highs in the mid 40s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday
Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
