The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Moderate Risk to cover all of Mississippi and sections of Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. That makes it pretty simple for most of you: If you’re in Mississippi, you’re in a Moderate Risk.
But Nick, I’m in Petal, what about me? Moderate Risk.
Hey Nick, I’m in Marion County? What’s my Risk? Moderate Risk.
Nick, I’ve got to drive from just south of Memphis to Gulfport. What is my Risk along the drive? Moderate Risk.
The latest model data shows a line of showers and storms moving into the region. Below is an animation of where the line of storms is anticipated to be located at 4p Wednesday.
While storm motion will be east-northeast between 50 and 70mph, the entire line will be moving from west to east across the region at about 30-40mph. So if it gets into the westerns counties/parishes around 4p, and it moving at 30mph, it won’t be into the eastern areas until about six hours later – at 10p.
Keeping that in mind, the window of opportunity and threats for the entire area is:
MAIN CONCERNS
||| Between Wed 3p through Thurs 1a |||
Brief heavy rain
Localized flash flooding
Frequent lightning
Wind gusts up to 65mph (perhaps higher)
Small Hail
Multiple brief tornadoes (a few stronger than EF-2)
That’s what they said last time…
This is something I hear a lot. While I’ve never really been able to figure out who “they” are, a lot of people think what “they” said last time means something for this time.
But it doesn’t.
It is like going out for a sweet treat after dinner. Just because last time you got ice cream, doesn’t mean this time it will be ice cream. Maybe it will be cookies. Or cake! Or milkshakes – sure there is even some ice cream in that one, but it is different.
And it is all desert. But it is different.
Same thing goes with severe weather. It is all severe weather, but this time is different.
Last time was more about a broken line of storms with the potential to produce strong wind, hail and strong tornadoes.
This time is about a solid line of storms with a high likelihood to produce strong wind and the potential to produce strong tornadoes.
County-by-County Timeline
A quick reminder that this timeline doesn’t mean that the entire time it will be raining and storming. It is an attempt to give you the best window of opportunity for storms to be near you. A three to four hour window may only feature rain and storms for 30-45 minutes. But the goal is to highlight a window where the threat is higher than at other times.
This timeline is likely to change a bit in the coming days, too. So please check back for an update tomorrow as more data comes down and we get a better handle on things. For the moment, here is a look at the threats by general population:
During the highlighted times below
EVERYONE — Brief heavy rain, lightning, and wind gusts up to 50mph
MOST SPOTS — Heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 55mph
SOME PEOPLE — Heavy rain, localized flooding, wind gusts up to 65mph, small hail
FEW PLACES — Heavy rain, localized flooding, wind gusts exceeding 65mph, small hail, a tornado
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Wednesday 1p-4p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 4p-7p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 7p-10p — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Tangipahoa Parish
Wednesday 1p-4p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 4p-7p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 7p-10p — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Washington Parish
Wednesday 1p-4p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 4p-7p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 7p-10p — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Livingston Parish
Wednesday 1p-4p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 4p-7p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 7p-10p — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
St. Tammany Parish
Wednesday 1p-4p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 4p-7p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 7p-10p — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Simpson County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Smith County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Jasper County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Clarke County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Lawrence County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Jeff Davis County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Covington County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Jones County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Wayne County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 3p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Walthall County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 4p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Marion County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Lamar County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Forrest County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Perry County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Greene County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 5p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Stone County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
George County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
Jackson County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Harrison County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Hancock County
Wednesday 2p-6p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 6p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 6p-10p — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Wednesday 10p-Thursday 2a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Alabama
Sumter County
Wednesday 4p-8p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 7p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 8p-Thursday 2a — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Thursday 2a-6a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Choctaw County
Wednesday 4p-8p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 7p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 8p-Thursday 2a — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Thursday 2a-6a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
Washington County
Wednesday 4p-8p — Breezy. Isolated showers with few rumbles of thunder developing early, very few (if any) storms may be strong to severe before 7p. Main threats with any storm will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, small hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out.
Wednesday 8p-Thursday 2a — Showers and storms likely, many strong with a handful severe. Main threats with stronger storms will be very heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential for a tornado (up to EF3 in strength).
Thursday 2a-6a — Storms ending. Turning cooler and breezy.
