Showers and storms are back int the forecast again during the next 72 hours. Some of the storms may be severe, too. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the Area under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather. That is a “3” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
The potential for severe weather is spread across three ‘forecast days’ from the SPC but is really just confined to Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday morning a line of storms will zip through the region between about 4a and 9a with heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, quarter-sized hail, and the potential for a few tornadoes.
WEdnesday afternoon between about 3p and 9p there will be a broken line of storms that looks to slide through the area with the potential for heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail, and we can’t rule out a tornado or two.
Both situations look like if any tornadoes form, the most likely place would be embedded within the line of storms.
However, there is some risk, according to a few of the high-res models that a storms or two could try to develop ahead of the main line of storms on Tuesday morning. If that happens, those storms would pose a higher (emphasis on “er” there) potential for tornadoes, but that potential right now does seem low.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK POTENTIAL
** Between 4a and 9a Tuesday morning **
HEAVY RAIN
BRIEF, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65MPH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
Looking at the Updraft Helicity Streaks laid on top of some of the other parameters and timeline of the storms, it looks like there may end up being two areas that have a higher risk for dealing with the strongest storms of the morning. Those spots, and the times and highlighted in red below.
Please keep in mind that “dealing with the strongest storms” doesn’t mean the entire area is going to get blown off the map. Instead, it just means that the computer guidance has outlines these areas witht eh most overlapping parameters that will allow storms to become severe and potential produce the damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes.
WHO SEES WHAT DURING THE STORMS?
EVERYONE — Brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 35mph
MOST AREAS — Brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 45mph
MANY PLACES — A few rounds of heavy rain, ponding in low-lying areas, a lot of lightning, wind gusts up to 55mph
SOME PEOPLE — One extended round of Heavy rain, brief localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail
FEW SPOTS — Very heavy rain, localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up to the size of quarters, a tornado
Based on the numbers, it looks like the strongest a tornado would be tomorrow is EF-2 or low-end EF-3. And as I say often, Tornadoes of up to EF-2 strength are often very survivable tornadoes if you take the right steps to protect yourself from what is happening outside. Getting into that interior room, bathroom, closet, or even just a hallway increases the chances you make it through with just bumps and bruises. If you can leave a mobile/manufactured home and seek shelter in a foundation home, that helps, too.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight
Increasing clouds with a few showers possible. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Tuesday
Thunderstorms likely. Severe weather possible in the morning. Breezy. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms possible. Some severe. Breezy. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday
Sunny, cooler with highs in the lower 70s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Friday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Thanks for keeping us updated Nick!! We appreciate you!!