One more day of storms today, and then things will calm down. Model guidance shows afternoon showers and storms possible across the region, but nothing nearly as robust as yesterday.
The main concern for today is brief heavy downpours, lightning, small hail (pea to dime-sized) and wind gusts up to 50mph. In the strongest storms, you may be able to sneak out some nickel-to-quarter-sized hail.
The tornado threat is very low today. And I’ll prove it!
It may be tough to see, but the Skew-T data shows that, despite having a cold front in the area, the low-level wind shear and spin is much lower today than yesterday (circled areas) and thus the helicity values (arrowed) are lower.
And when looking at the historical values needed to produce tornadoes in our area, these numbers fall well short. The Tornado Environment Browser data from the Storm Prediction Center (below) show that we would be well short on effective shear and on the lowest 25-percent for helicity.
So, sure, the chance for tornadoes is never really zero for the Southern MS/AL/LA region, but in this case it is very low.
So brief heavy rain, lightning, small hail and gusty wind it is.
Once this passes, it looks like we will get a break for a few days as we head into and through the weekend. Clearing skies and comfortable temperatures with a breeze.
Things start to cloud back up with better chances for rain next week. At this time it looks like the potential for severe weather won’t slip back into the forecast until …say it with me… Wednesday. But even then, at this time, it looks like a smaller threat.
Things may get a bit more active as we get past Tax Day again, too, but that is also a bit too far out to really worry about. More so just a reminder to soak up the nice weather this weekend for sure!
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Partly to mostly cloudy with passing storms this afternoon. Some storms may be severe. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Tonight
Clearing skies. Cooler. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday
Sunny and breezy. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Friday
Sunny and breezy again. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs around 70.
Saturday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday
Sunny. Not as cool with highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday
Partly sunny with a chance showers and storms. Severe weather not likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 60.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy some storms possible. Severe weather not likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 30-percent.
