Things are starting to come together with respect to the threat for severe weather. Finally. Due to the general setup for this system, computer guidance has really struggled to resolve how things are going to shake out.
So far, this next system has produced snow in Portland, Oregon in April for the first time since 1936 and only the sixth time ever. IT is set to bring more than two feet of snow and blizzard conditions to parts of the Dakotas today and tomorrow, too.
As for the Gulf Coast, no snow, but the chance for severe weather.
IT looks like the main timeline for severe weather will be between about 3p Wednesday through 3a Thursday. The storms will be earlier for folks along and west of I-55 and later for folks east of I-59. Model guidance this morning has removed the “Round One / Round Two” risk and simply made it one extended round of storms. This makes more sense meteorologically.
That means a line of storms along a cold front and potential clusters and supercells ahead of the line.
It also means one of those “conditional threat” kind of days where not everyone will see severe weather, and it will be important to keep tabs on the weather during the evening, despite the chance that nothing “bad” happens at your house specifically.
TIMELINE
— I-55 corridor: 3p-9p
— HWY43/13 corridor: 5p-11p
— I-59 corridor: 8p-2a
— HWY45/57: 10p-4a
THREATS
— Heavy rain
— Localized flooding
— Lightning
— Wind gusts up to 65mph
— Hail up to the size of half dollars
— Tornadoes (up to EF-3 in strength)
I’ll try to get a more specific breakdown later today when I have some more free time.
Today
Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers and storms this afternoon. Breezy. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Tonight
Cloudy, and breezy, with passing showers and storms. Severe weather can’t be ruled out. The main threat with any storm wil be heavy rain, lightning and gusty wind. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy and breezy with afternoon and evening storms. Severe weather possible. Main threats with any storms will be heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, and small hail. Tornadoes will be possible, too. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60-percent.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy, Severe weather possible. Main threats with any storms will be heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, and small hail. Tornadoes will be possible, too. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90-percent.
Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a chance for showers and storms. Severe weather isn’t anticipated. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with another chance for showers and storms. Severe weather isn’t anticipated. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a few storms possible. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30-percent.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with storms possible, Severe weather isn’t anticipated.. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Monday
Partly sunny. Highs around 80.
