Hot and muggy conditions to continue across the Southeast: SW MS Weather Forecast – 6/14/22

Skies are mostly clear this morning across the region, with a few puffy clouds likely by the afternoon. As a high pressure continues to stay put over the Southeast, hot and muggy conditions with only slight chances for relief in the form of a passing shower or thunderstorm will be the story through the rest of the week.

Taking a peek at the GFS model, a high at 500mb centered over northern Alabama, northern Georgia and western Tennessee will be responsible for mid-level south-southeasterly flow, not only keeping Southwestern Mississippi warm, but also very humid.

GFS model output 500mb height and wind speed // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics

This upper-level high isn’t in a hurry either. Expect above average high temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s F through the end of the week, with heat index values approaching 105F courtesy of the humid air. Throughout the week, the high-pressure will slowly drift westward, and by the weekend, the center of this high pressure will be over the central Great Plains, setting up a northeasterly flow regime over the region, which may help to usher in some slightly drier air for Sunday. Even though temperatures will remain in the 90s, this drier air will help keep the heat index below 100F on Sunday.

GFS model output dew point temperatures for Sunday afternoon // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics
GFS model output apparent temperature for Sunday afternoon // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics

Unfortunately, these “comfortable” dew points won’t last too long. By Monday, a synoptic southerly flow returns, bringing dew point temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Aside from the less-soupy air for Sunday, the only break that we’ll get from the heat will be in the form of scattered showers or thunderstorms. The chance for these are rather low for today and Wednesday, with the odds increasing slightly for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, dropping off again for Sunday and Monday.



Day to Day Forecast

Tuesday
Mostly clear with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s, with heat index values around 100F.

Wednesday
Mostly clear with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s, with heat index values of around 100F.

Thursday
Partly cloudy early followed a period of intermittent afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s, with heat index values of around 100F.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s F, with heat index values of around 100F.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect high temperatures in the mid-90s F, with heat index values approaching 105F.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect high temperatures in the low-to-mid-90s F, with heat index values nearly the same in the mid-90s.

Monday
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Expect high temperatures in the mid-90s F, with heat index values approaching 100F.



Author of the article:


Jake Rumowicz

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