Gulf disturbance and high pressure duo bringing plentiful moisture to the region: SW MS Weather Forecast – 6/30/22

Good morning folks! Cooler temperatures today with highs around 87F. Expect calm winds and skies to be mostly cloudy with general showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon/evening. Dew points will be in the lower 70s causing Heat Index temperatures to reach the lower 90s, but otherwise these temperatures are a relief from the past few weeks!

This increase in cloud cover and moist air is primarily being influenced by a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and an area of high pressure.

GFS 500mb Temperature, Height, & Wind // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

A diffuse ridge pattern is situated across the CONUS with a primary area of high pressure just off the East Coast. This is helping bring plentiful moisture to the area, enhancing both the dew points and rainfall amounts across the region as the high pressure causes southerly winds to blow across the Gulf and into SW Mississippi. Even more so, the area of low pressure in the Gulf is working with the high pressure to bring an abundance of moisture which will persist for the next several days.

HRRR 2m Dew Point 10am CT (6/30) // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Today’s dew points and high moisture content will provide plenty of fuel for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and for the next several days. This will aid in keeping temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s this week and into this weekend. Early next week subtropical ridging will begin ease back over the region bringing warmer temperatures and *slightly* lesser precipitation coverage, although chances will still remain in the 30-to-40 percent range, including the 4th of July.

HRRR Reflectivity, Thursday 11am to 11pm CT (6/30) // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Expect showers and thunderstorms to begin to develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. These storms will contain heavy rainfall with localized amounts exceeding 1″ in some places. The risk for flash flooding will be marginal; however, if you come across a flooded roadway, remember the saying, “turn around, don’t down,” as the waters can be deceiving and are often more dangerous than they appear.



Day to Day Forecast

Today
Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat Index values in the lower 90s.

Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms, clearing by midnight. Lows in the lower 70s.

Friday
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat Index values in the lower 90s.

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the upper 80s. Heat Index values in the lower 90s.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.

Monday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.



Author of the article:


Gabriel Taylor

Gabriel Taylor is an upcoming Junior studying Meteorology at Florida Institute of Technology. He enjoys forecasting and watching the weather whether it be in his hometown in New Jersey or at school in Florida.