Hot and Muggy Across the Region, with Some Help from Thunderstorms to Cool Us Down: Southeast Weather Forecast – 7/5/2022

Good morning, folks! I hope everyone enjoyed their 3-day weekend and had a great Fourth of July.

As we start up our work week, the heat will continue, with above average temperatures expected for the entire Southeast, courtesy of an mid-level ridge building across much of the South.

Current 500mb heights (m) and wind (kt) // Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Page

At the time I’m writing this, the center of the mid-level ridge is located over in Northern Louisiana. With a 500mb height of 5940 m (almost 20,000 ft) above mean sea level, it’s slightly above average for this time of year. As higher heights generally means higher temperatures, we would expect temperatures at the surface to be slightly above average, as well.

Mean 5-day 2m temperature anomalies (C) from Monday evening through Saturday evening, per the GFS model // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics

Which is what we see when looking at the figure above, which shows the 5-day mean temperatures to be above average for most of the Southern and Central United States.

In fact, the National Weather Service has already issued Heat Advisories, and in some cases Excessive Heat Warnings due to the above-average temperatures expected this week.

Map of the United States, with Heat Advisories for the counties highlighted in orange, and Excessive Heat Warnings for the counties highlighted in dark purple (the St. Louis area) // Courtesy: National Weather Service

So, just how hot is it going to get? Well, for Tuesday, we can except temperatures to exceed 100 F in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, and approaching in the upper-90s, approaching 100 F elsewhere across Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northern Mississippi.

National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Tuesday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics
National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Tuesday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics

Across the eastern portions of our area, it is much the same story, with high temperatures in the mid-90s likely for much of Alabama and Georgia, save for the higher elevations north of Atlanta. Across portions of southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana and closer to the Gulf of Mexico, temperature should remain somewhat cooler in the upper 80s to low 90s, due to an upper-level disturbance increasing chances for widespread showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Much the same is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, as the mid-level ridge remains in place, keeping the Southeast nice and toasty.

National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Wednesday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics
National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Thursday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics
National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Wednesday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics
National Weather Service forecast high temperatures for Thursday // Courtesy: WeatherBell Analytics

As far as chances for rain go, for the hottest places, there isn’t much. Most of the precipitation expected this week is associated with that weak upper-level disturbance I mentioned earlier, which means our highest chances for rain will be for southern Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. Although no washout is expected, these pop-up thunderstorms will help to bring some relief from the high temperatures.



3-Day Southeast City Forecast

Dallas, TX
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 102FHigh: 102FHigh: 102F
Low: 78FLow: 80FLow: 82F
Precip: NonePrecip: NonePrecip: None
Houston, TX
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 96FHigh: 94FHigh: 95F
Low: 79FLow: 79FLow: 80F
Precip: NonePrecip: 10%Precip: 40%
New Orleans, LA
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 87FHigh: 89FHigh: 90F
Low: 79FLow: 80FLow: 81F
Precip: 80%Precip: 80%Precip: 80%
Little Rock, AR
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 99FHigh: 98FHigh: 98F
Low: 78FLow: 79FLow: 79F
Precip: NonePrecip: NonePrecip: 10%
Memphis, TN
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 98FHigh: 98FHigh: 99F
Low: 80FLow: 79FLow: 80F
Precip: 10%Precip: 10%Precip: None
Birmingham, AL
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 93FHigh: 93FHigh: 95F
Low: 77FLow: 76FLow: 77F
Precip: 30%Precip: 40%Precip: 30%
Atlanta, GA
TuesdayWednesdayThursday
High: 91FHigh: 92FHigh: 92F
Low: 72FLow: 73FLow: 73F
Precip: 30%Precip: 30%Precip: 30%


Author of the article:


Jake Rumowicz