Good morning! The first thing we want to bring everybody’s attention to is the heat that is forecast to remain in place for the remainder of this week. A Heat Advisory is back in effect for most of Southwestern MS, with the exception of the areas covered by NWS New Orleans- areas like McComb and Woodville.
Those areas along the Louisiana border will still be dangerously hot, but probably not as hot and humid as areas further North. Rather than showing the advisory, which covers most of the area, this is a graphic from the NWS in Jackson, showing the areas that they believe will be the worst for the heat. Tomorrow and until Saturday, the worst heat and humidity will probably be concentrated to the North of our area, in places like Vicksburg and Memphis.
According to that graphic, some areas around Vicksburg or Jackson could see heat indices reach 110F! I won’t type that out in the forecast, since most areas should stay below that number, but remember that if you live closer to I-20. No matter how you slice it, dangerous heat is going to occur.
Still under the ridge of high pressure, thunderstorms will form during the afternoon hours, like we’re all used to. The Weather Prediction Center has us under a marginal risk of flash flooding during the afternoon today, meaning that some storms may produce heavy rain and isolated flooding-similar to what happened today.
This weekend, a weak cold front will approach from the North, but we probably won’t feel any difference at all. The front is set to start to deteriorate across the Southeast, and our hot and humid airmass will stay in place, though more frequent rain chances may cool us off for this weekend.
Sunday, the flow at 500 mb, which is a few miles above the ground, will become Northwesterly, which is a flow pattern usually associated with more active weather. Severe weather is definitely not likely, but a higher risk of thunderstorms is probably going to be present.
The brighter oranges and reds indicate higher vorticity, which leads to rain and storm development. Since a lot of the higher values are forecast to be further to the East, we may not see as much rainfall as areas in Alabama, or along the Gulf Coast.
Though the past few weeks have had plenty of rain, and some areas around the Ridgecrest, MS area reported flooding, the area is still seeing drier than average conditions over the last 60 days. Looking at the anomaly map, most areas around here are checking in at close to 75-percent of their usual 2 monthly rainfall. We have seen way worse like 2011, so you have to take this when we can get it.
MAJOR improvements have been made over the past 2 weeks, but much of the area still remains in a slight drought. So the forecast for rain could be higher, but some is better than nothing. Current rainfall forecasts show around 0.5”-1” over the next week, so keep watering those plants for now!
Day-to-Day Forecast
Today
Partly cloudy, with a 70-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the low-90s. The heat index may reach 106F.
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy, with a 30-percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s. The heat index may reach 107F.
Friday
Partly cloudy, with a 20-percent chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s. The heat index may reach 107F.
Saturday
Partly cloudy, with a 40-percent chance of evening and overnight thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-90s. The heat index may reach 108F.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a 70-percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Some could produce heavy rain. Highs in the upper-80s.
Monday
Partly cloudy, with a 50-percent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low-90s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy, with a 60-percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower-90s.
