Good morning, folks and Happy Friday! As has been the story throughout the week, the oppressive, dangerous heat will continue through at least Saturday before things begin to cool off a bit.
As has been done by the other forecasters this week, I feel its appropriate to share the NWS graphic that has been produced detailing the extreme heat in the area.
The worst conditions are expected to be north of Jackson and west of I-55, where heat indices will read between 110-115F through both today and tomorrow, due to temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points in the mid-70s.
Let’s break down the current weather picture so we can get an idea of where this heat is coming from and where it’s going as we take a look into the weather for next week.
Current Weather
Currently, the 500mb ridge is centered over southern Alabama, but is quite elongated, encompassing most of the Southern Half of the United States. The 500mb heights are only slightly above average for this time of year, however, with high dew points across much of the Southeast – it has still been enough to produce some very high apparent temperatures, exceeding 100F for much of the region.
Through Sunday
The weather remains much the same through Saturday, with the dangerously hot temperatures continuing and slight chances for a passing shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. This is all thanks to the strengthening upper-level ridge that begins to slowly move westward toward the Rockies.
For both Friday and Saturday, temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 90s, and with dew points in the mid-70s, the feels-like temperature will approach will approach and in some cases exceed 110F for Southwestern Mississippi.
One thing to note, however, is the overall decrease of exceptionally hot temperatures in northern Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky – this is due to an approaching cold front that will help to bring some shower and thunderstorms as it moves into the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
As the front moves through, a period of disturbed weather will occur, featuring showers and thunderstorms into Sunday morning. However, by Sunday afternoon, the rain will have moved out and the skies will have cleared somewhat, bringing the temperatures back up into the low-90s.
Next Monday through Friday
As the cold front moves through the region Sunday morning, it will stall just offshore over the northern Gulf of Mexico, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the week. This, along with another approaching frontal boundary later this week will make for a pretty wet next few days…
Both the American and European ensemble models are in agreement with this solution, with the European model producing a bit more rain through next week.
While the last row of images may look alarming, don’t forget that that is the total precipitation for a week-long period. Nonetheless, it is still concerning that the European model shows precipitation totals in excess of 10″ along the Gulf Coast – this will certainly be something to monitor closely as we get past the weekend.
Regardless, all of this rain will help to lower the temperatures considerably from what we’ve been seeing this week, with the European ensemble showing average to below-average temperatures (likely because it develops a stronger system offshore), and the American ensemble showing about average to slightly above-average temperatures for next week.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly clear skies with a high in the mid-90s and a 20-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Heat index values may exceed 110F.
Saturday
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with a high in the mid-90s and a 20-percent chance of an afternoon storm. Head index values may exceed 110F.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, with skies clearing somewhat by the afternoon. A high temperatures of around 90F is expected, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, diminishing to a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon.
Monday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 50% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy skies with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Expect temperatures in the low-to-mid-80s.
