Good morning folks! Skies should be mostly clear today until later in the afternoon when some pop-up thunderstorms develop, but most showers should pass quickly and will clear up fully before midnight. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s, which when combined with the mid-70s dewpoints, will push heat indices into the lower 100s; please take care of yourself in this heat and drink plenty of water!
The 500mb ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over most of the U.S. with an area of high pressure situated near the Four Corners. The ridge isn’t expected to move much over the next 7 days and will continue to steer disturbances around it bringing stormy weather to the Plains and Great Lakes. An upper-level low that has been cut off from the jetstream sits over Florida and is causing unsettled weather across the peninsula. Coastal MS/AL/LA will experience quieter weather with this pattern as winds at the 500mb level and the surface will remain weak, including the low threat for any significant storm systems to arrive over the next 7 days.
Most of MS/AL/LA will be drier than average over the next 5 days with precipitation amounts higher along the coast. But why is it drier this week? Sure, there is plenty of moisture and heat to create an unstable atmosphere; however, one of the main ingredients missing is the lack of lift in the atmosphere. Earlier this week we had a disturbance in the Gulf and an upper-level trough over the Southeast, both of which provide lift and allowed thunderstorms to develop in the unstable environment, but they have since dissipated and exited the region.
The coast has the best chances for precipitation over the next several days as it has its own unique and near-daily source of lift in the summer: the seabreeze. This mesoscale boundary forms along the coast and pushes inland as the land is heated more greatly than the ocean and often initiates thunderstorm development in the afternoon. The main source of thunderstorm development for the next several days will come from these seabreezes, which is why the coast will experience more rain than farther inland. The above image is the forecasted precipitable water values over the region at 11am, ranging between 1.5″ and 2.0″, enough for heavy rainfall and for the seabreeze to create pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 60-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 100F.
Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 100F.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 100F.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
Friday
Mostly sunny with a 20-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
