Tropical disturbance bringing heavy rain to South Texas, severe storms in the Carolinas: Southeast Weather Forecast – 8/14/22

A few things to talk about today for the Southeast region of the U.S. including an amplified ridge and a trough dominating the overall weather pattern for the next 3 days and a sneaky tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

A large-scale trough has brought in drier air to the north and north eastern portions of the Southeast while areas closer to the Gulf, including the Florida Peninsula, will remain moist for the next 3 days. This is a result of the subtropical ridge remaining strong enough to hold the drier air at bay; however, today will foster mostly sunny skies and quieter weather across most of the region as drier air aloft has moved in unimpeded. High temperatures will range anywhere from the lower 80s to the upper 90s across the Southeast the next three days, but overall will be cooler than what has been present the majority of this summer.

Meanwhile a tropical disturbance (Invest 98, which at the time of writing this post has a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone) will drift west-southwestward in the 500mb flow over Southern Texas bringing heavy rains and some gusty winds.

Portions of Southern Texas could receive anywhere from 3″-5″ of rain with some locally higher amounts possible. Comparatively the Southeast region as a whole will remain drier with rainfall amounts less than 1.50″ over the next 3 days.

Most of this rainfall will come from spotty showers and thunderstorms but there is a marginal risk for severe weather for portions of central NC, NW SC, and NE Georgia on Monday with the primary threat being damaging winds.

The location of the storm’s heaviest rainfall isn’t the most beneficial in terms of the ongoing drought in Texas, but this will help South Texas significantly as they are currently experiencing severe and extreme drought conditions.

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3-Day Southeast City Forecasts

Dallas, TX		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 100F	High: 101F	High: 102F
Low: 79F	Low: 80F	Low: 80F
Precip: None	Precip: None	Precip: None

Houston, TX		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 93F	High: 93F	High: 94F
Low: 76F	Low: 76F	Low: 77F
Precip: 40%	Precip: 20%	Precip: 20%

New Orleans, LA		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 89F	High: 90F	High: 91F
Low: 76F	Low: 76F	Low: 76F
Precip: 40%	Precip: 30%	Precip: 30%

Little Rock, AR		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 97F	High: 99F	High: 93F
Low: 76F	Low: 73F	Low: 71F
Precip: None	Precip: None	Precip: 30%

Memphis, TN		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 94F	High: 95F	High: 88F
Low: 73F	Low: 71F	Low: 70F
Precip: None	Precip: None	Precip: 40%

Birmingham, AL		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 92F	High: 95F	High: 92F
Low: 75F	Low: 74F	Low: 74F
Precip: None	Precip: 20%	Precip: 20%

Atlanta, GA		
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 87F	High: 91F	High: 88F
Low: 70F	Low: 70F	Low: 68F
Precip: None	Precip: 20%	Precip: 20%