Very wet to end this week and begin next week: SE MS / SW AL Weather Forecast – 8/18/22

GFS 500mb Height and Wind // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Consistent rounds of showers and thunderstorms will keep inundating much of the Southeast through the rest of the week and even into next week. Troughing throughout the eastern US and northwesterly flow aloft as led to cooler than average temperatures and increased opportunities for rainfall.

This overall pattern will look to stay, especially as models continue to forecast another closed upper-level low diving south through the Midwest before ejecting across the eastern US this weekend.

Influencing our weather for the short term, a stalled front remains draped across much of the lower Southeast and will continue to stir up scattered thunderstorms. Isolated severe thunderstorms may be possible in the evening hours (owing due to modest DCAPE values) as well as locally heavy rainfall. The overall severity of these storms will begin to wain when the sun begins to go down and surface heating is lost. Localized flooding will be a concern for much of the forecast period with these repeated rounds of potentially heavy showers and downbursts.

HRRR Composite Reflectivity offering an idea of what the showers and thunderstorms may do from 12:00am Thursday to 11:00am Friday // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

After this weekend and into next week, the rain looks to continue for much of the area, mainly due to the northwest flow aloft. High pressure will build slightly this weekend, not enough to suppress storm development, but enough to allow the stalled front to move northward and bring more moist air over the region. Virtually all of the forecast area will have PW values climb to >2 inches and continue to allow the opportunity for very efficient rainfall nearly next week. Total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days may reach up to 2.5 to 3 inches, but locally higher amounts are possible.

GFS Precipitable Water (in) from Friday at 11:00pm to Wednesday at 11:00pm // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (in) through the next 7 days showing the amount of rain we may see over this timeframe // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Day to Day Forecast

Thursday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 70%.

Friday

Partly cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.

Saturday

Partly cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 80%.

Monday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 70%.

Tuesday

Overcast skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 70%.



Author of the article:


Kaden Schroeder

Kaden is a student at the University of Oklahoma majoring in Meteorology and minoring in Weather and Climate. He hails from the small town of Lebo, Kansas and has been into weather ever since he was a kid. He has a keen interest in severe weather forecasting but enjoys forecasting all kinds of weather overall.