Plentiful rain in the coming days before the heat gradually climbs by the week’s end: SE MS / SW AL Weather Forecast – 8/21/22

GFS 500mb Height and Wind // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

It has been a soggy one over the last few days and should continue to be so in the near future. Remaining predominately under the influence of troughing in the mid and upper levels, along with abundant moisture, expect more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to wash over the region. While keeping us sheltered from any hot, tropical temperatures, flooding has and will continue to remain a concern. Later on down the week towards the weekend, the trough will advance eastward off the coast of the US and relatively drier air looks to try to filter in behind it. What this could mean for us is less efficient rainfall (which may alleviate flood concerns somewhat) and a gradual rise in temperatures.

Sounding like a broken record at this point, we shall continue to see rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. A stationary front remains draped more or less over the region and will continue to provide lift for these developing storms. PW values will remain high, staying at or above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will be a concern through much of the week. Rainfall totals look to hover around 1 to 2 inches across the area this week, although locally higher amounts are possible. Overall, the severe threat with any of these storms looks to remain low.

GFS Total QPF through the next 7 days // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Temperatures look to remain very comfortable with the widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area, staying in the low to mid 80s at the most. As the trough responsible for our weather moves east towards the end of the week and into the weekend, temperatures look to rise steadily as drier air attempts to enter the area. Highs are expected to rise into the upper 80s and low 90s by the weekend, with heat indices approaching the upper 90s. PW values will also look to decrease down to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches, which will contribute to the air not feeling tropical and oppressive and allow for less efficient rainfall rates.

ECMWF 2 m AGL Temperature (°F) showing possible temperatures over the next 7 days // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Day to Day Forecast

Sunday

Cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 80%.

Monday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 80%.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 80%.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms likely. High temperatures in the low 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 70%.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.

Friday

Partly cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.

Saturday

Partly cloudy skies, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Chance of rain 50%.



Author of the article:


Kaden Schroeder

Kaden is a student at the University of Oklahoma majoring in Meteorology and minoring in Weather and Climate. He hails from the small town of Lebo, Kansas and has been into weather ever since he was a kid. He has a keen interest in severe weather forecasting but enjoys forecasting all kinds of weather overall.