For those who are asking, “when is this rain going to end?” I have some good news. The answer is pretty clear:
Eventually.
Okay, okay, I’m only joke. I do have a more specific forecast.
An area of low pressure semi-related to what is left over of Invest 98L and Invest 99L will drift across the region during the next few days along a lingering boundary. That means we will be pooling moisture at the low levels and have forcing available in the mid-levels to produce precipitation for the next few days.
The bad news is that the answer isn’t going to be a very “happy” forecast for those who are growing gills and webbed feet… It looks like it may not clear out until, at least, Friday. And things won’t fully clear out till Saturday. And int he meantime, flash flooding is going to be possible nearly every day as showers and storms could end up “training” over the same area, witht he potential to drop up to 6″ of rain.
Once we start to dry things out, it does look like higher pressure may try to build back into the area. That emans we will warm back up a bit, but it will be pretty humid for a few days.
Looking out into the Tropics during the next 10 days, the model guidance is rather split. The GEFS (left, below) shows a wide spread with the only real clustering near the Bay of Campeche and out into the open Atlantic. The EPS (right, below) shows a decent cluster running from the open Atlantic toward the Bahamas.
Due to the split in the guidance, it is tough to nail down specifics at this time. The National Hurricane Center is still only holding a 20-percent chance of any development out in the open Atlantic during the next five days.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs around 80. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with scattered storms possible. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with storms possible. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with storms possible. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few storms possible. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday
Partly sunny with more storms possible. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a few storms possible.. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny with afternoon storms possible Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
