10/5/22 7PM Update: Dry weather continues – No ‘good’ chance for meaningful rain through October 25th says latest model guidance

It’s been pretty dry lately. During the last 30 days rainfall totals are sitting around 0.5″ to 2.5″ – about 1″ to 4″ behind where we should be this time of year. Folks up near Meridian in both MS and AL are faring the best right now. Everyone else is parched.

And that may not change.

I don’t know how much I believe it, yet, but the next few fronts look mighty dry. And we may be stuck in this dry pattern through the end of the month. Right now the only thing standing between us and a basically dry October are one front on Friday, another in about 10 days, Invest 91L, and another front around the 20th, and one more front a few days before Halloween.

In short, we have five shots for rain through the rest of October (as far as it looks right now) based on the model guidance. And the first front looks bone dry. At this time, the second one looks to offer a shot for storms, but the rainfall totals don’t look overly robust.

The first front (above, left) will give the area a quick burst of slightly cooler air. It should keep temperatures this weekend in the low 80s. But no real rain. The second front (above, right) may offer some chilly air as we move into next weekend. Highs should still top out around 80, but overnight lows may drop into the 40s.

And this second front may offer a slightly better shot for rain. But not much. Model guidance is showing between 0.5″ and 1.5″ of rain in total as the second front passes.

And that is great. But…

Looking at the Drought Monitor from last week (the new one is out tomorrow), many spots across the region are “Abnormally Dry” as it is, and 1.5″ of rain will help, but not as much as we need.

Looking beyond That front, even the next front may not offer much help. The forecast data, using teleconnections as a guide (below, left) and looking at the CFS Analogs (below, right), don’t paint a very rainy picture, either.

So if you have some brown grass outside your back door, or the creek near your house is looking low… Mother Nature may not have much help to offer during the month of October.

And even looking at analogs, there is some question about how wet we can possibly be in October. I posted about this on Twitter the other day…

The interesting thing about the pattern in September is that, historically, it produced above-normal rainfall for parts of the SE but this year it did not.

So the analog showing a wetter Oct can, probably, be ignored. pic.twitter.com/yvABwORjRM

— Nick Lilja (@NickLilja) October 4, 2022

So, if we were “supposed to be” wet in September given the pattern, when I see that we “should be wet” in October, given the pattern I have questions. The first being: How can I trust this?

But I think I knw the only answer to actually guaranteeing rainfall. The only sure bet for getting rain: Everyone needs to get their car washed… with that special blend of soap.