It is almost like the SPC was reading the blog yesterday! I say almost because we both came to the same conclusion. They are far too busy to read anything I write. But it is nice to see we are on the same page.
This morning the Storm Prediction Center introduced a Slight Risk for severe weather across the area.
If you read the bog yesterday afternoon, you know why! It looks like the pool of moisture available for storms on Saturday is going to be a bit deeper than models were suggesting 24 hours ago. That is both good and bad. The good news is that means any storm that does actually rain will produce more rain. The bad new is that it comes with the price of an increased risk for severe weather – and in particular, tornadoes.
Not much has changed with the forecast.
TIMELINE
This is still looking like a Saturday midday / afternoon / evening event. So, if you have outdoor plans between 11a and 7p on Saturday you may want to make sure you have a backup plan.
THREATS
Brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, small hail and the potential for brief and weak tornadoes
Here is a look at the latest model data, showing the storms moving through during the day.
Thing don’t look overly-robust, so I don’t think “significant” severe weather is anything we have to worry about. But a few storms may be severe with heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph and the ability to produce a tornado.
It is a good day to do whatever it was you had planned…. but make sure you have a place to go if a storm is nearby. And make certain you have a way to get alerts from the NWS.
Once we get through this riff-raff, things calm down Sunday and we are looking good through most of next week. We may have some brief rain Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, then the next storm system arrives next Friday (ish).
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly sunny. Highs around 80.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a chance for storms. Some storms may be severe. Highs in the mid 70s. Breezy. Southeast winds 10 to 15mph with gusts to 25mph Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday Night
Clearing skies late, a few lingering storms early. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Monday
Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Lows around 60. Chance for rain 30 percent.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
