The SPC added a Marginal Risk for severe weather across parts of the region overnight. I wouldn’t be surprised if they widen it and add a splotch of Slight Risk later today for parts of south central Louisiana and up into parts of Mississippi.
This isn’t going to be a knock-down-drag-out severe event by any means, but there is the potential there for a few storms to turn severe with wind gusts up to 60mph and the potential for a few brief tornadoes.
Looking at the Updraft Helicity streaks, they paint a good picture of the overall threat. As usual, don’t look at the placement of any one streak as Gospel. Instead, look at the coverage and the coloring.
Notice that there aren’t really any bright colors and the coverage is pretty sparse on any darker shading. That is a good indicator that the threat for severe storms should remain on the lower end of the scale.
Here is a look at the estimated radar from the HRRR model:
The timeline is mainly between 4a and 10a. So, if you are making plans for Saturday to do things outside… the afternoon will be the best bet.
As I mentioned last night, I think the severe weather threat for specific spots is higher and lower than the last go-around. Keeping in mind no two storm systems are alike, the risk is also different.
Once this moves through, things calm down pretty quick and Sunday looks good and that holds into next week.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy with areas of dense fog this morning. Fog clearing by mid-morning and into the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Breezy. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Breezy. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with showers and storms before noon. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
As usual, good coverage on the incoming weather event tomorrow. Looks like, where last Saturday it came in during the afternoon, this will primarily be a morning event.