The weather will remain rather interesting in the coming days as we have a few passing systems that should offer a chance for showers, storms, a low-end risk for severe weather along the coast, and then some precipitation with some cooler temperatures.
Teh low-end risk for severe weather along the coast is very low-end. The SPC is holding a Marginal Risk for severe weather along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coast tomorrow and Wednesday. The main concern is there will be juuust enough of a push of surface warm air to introduce the chance for brief, weak tornadoes and waterspouts. But that would be within about 10 miles of the coast in most spots and that is about it.
The rest of the are will see ‘elevated’ storms. That means they are not ‘surface-based’ storms and won’t really pose a risk for any type of severe weather. You may catch some brief heavy rain, pea-sized hail and loud thunder, but that would be the extent of the roughest of the weather.
The first showers will start as early as about 6p tonight. And last as late as about 6a tomorrow morning. It won’t be a steady rain the whole time, but off-and-on showers and thunder.
Then, it gets chilly again.
It is going to feel more like Valentine’s Day than Thanksgiving. Temperatures will be running below normal all week.
Notice that we don’t get any red back on the map until the day before Thanksgiving!
A lot of folks have been asking about snow, but right now, that doesn’t look like it is in the cards. Sure, some data has recently suggested a chance for a few flakes in the air Friday morning, but there certainly isn’t enough data to support adding any mention to the official forecast.
Take a look at the snowfall estimation map from the GFS during the last few days. Some days it shows a chance, other days, nothing.
And right now, the GFS (and the Euro, too) just shows cold and dry. So that is what we are going with for the forecast.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Increasing clouds during the day. A few showers possible this afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance for rain around 30 percent.
Tonight
Cloudy. Showers and storms possible overnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance for rain 90 percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. with showers and storms possible before noon. Highs in the upper 50s. Breezy. North winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Cold with lows around 30.
Friday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Saturday
Partly sunny with a you-can’t-totally-rule-out-a-shower chance for storms. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
