We’ve got a sunny day today before things start to cloud up as we head through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving. The best chance for rain in the coming days will be Tuesday and Thursday.
Tuesday looks to be mainly just light rain and drizzle. By Thursday, the rain should be a bit more robust. In fact, model guidance is showing the best bet for rain as Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
The GFS model guidance above from the GFS computer weather model show a chance for showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The Skew-T data suggests some instability and plenty of shear, which means severe weather is possible. Not likely, but I don’t think we can rule it out.
Historically speaking, the threat for severe weather in this kind of a setup is pretty low, too.
The Top 5 Analogs show pretty low-end events. And two situations show no severe weather occurred at all.
So I wouldn’t lose sleep over anything. But just keep tabs ont eh forecast in the coming days.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Monday
Sunny. Highs around 60.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the lower 40s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Thanksgiving Day
Passing clouds with a few showers possible. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
