We are still looking at a shot for showers and storms on Wednesday night. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted part of the area with a Slight Risk. A Marginal Risk is in effect for other sections.
Based on the morning data, the Slight Risk may need to be stretched a bit to the east and the Marginal Risk will eventually include parts of central and southern Alabama, too.
TIMELINE
Wednesday 6p – Thursday 6am
THREATS
Heavy rain, brief localized flash flooding, lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, small hail, a few tornadoes
This is another case of ‘not everyone will see the worst of the weather’ like a few days ago. So prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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The latest CIPS Analogs data has bounced back showing a higher risk for long-track and significant tornadoes within the Top 15 Analogs. That means, historically, while this is a bit of a ‘boom-or-bust’ situation, when it booms, there have been three-to-five times where it has ‘boomed’ with tornadoes.
The good news – or a bit of a silver lining? – is that the Analog ‘grades’ continue to fall. The grades are a measure of ‘how much is the data suggesting that this time will be similar to the Top 15 most similar times?’ and when the grades fall it means the model data is saying, ‘not as similar as before’ and then we, meteorologists, can decide if the CIPS data is still worth using, and identify where it might be failing.
I won’t bore you with those details, but the concern is that the model data may be under-doing some of the warmth and humidity. And that may may be driving this separation a bit. And might also be under-cutting the projected risk for severe weather, too.
The NAM computer weather model, for instance really cools down and dries out the atmosphere in the lower levels as we move through the overnight hours ahead of the cold front as it marches east. In central Louisiana, Wednesday afternoon/evening, the environment is supportive or severe weather. But by the time we get toward late evening in southeastern Louisiana, the atmosphere isn’t quite as conducive. Then by midnight (ish) in Mississippi, we have really lost many of the ingredients, according to the model guidance.
I’m not sure I’m ready to buy that, yet. Especially on the heels of what just happened a few days ago. Recall yesterday when we took the model data and simply bumped it up a few degrees we went from a Nothing Burger to a pretty stout severe environment. It won’t take much.
Since the above data is just deterministic guidance, I think it may be prudent to check the ensemble guidance data, too. Which takes into account all of the potential differences and outcomes.
And looking at the ensemble guidance from the CIPS Analogs probably does the best job at hammering out the true threat. And the risk for severe weather sits about 13-times higher that a ‘normal’ severe weather event.
So while we cannot guarantee severe weather, the potential is there. And the risk for severe weather is much higher than normal.
DAY TO DAY REGIONAL FORECAST
Today
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Not as cool. Near steady temperature around 60. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 60. South winds around 5 mph.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the mid 40s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday
Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday Night
Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
