The line of showers on the radar this morning will continue to traverse to the east. Just some light rain, for the most part with some patches of brief moderate rainfall.
The model data continues to lean toward a lack of surface-based severe weather on Wednesday night across the region. Even the shorter-range stuff that is coming in this morning! That is some good news. Not ‘great’ news, but certainly ‘good’ news.
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I still think severe weather is in the cards, but it may be mostly elevated (wind/hail), and not completely surface-based (tornadoes). The SPC, for the record, is holding their Slight Risk across the region and even expanding it farther north. And it has pushed the Marginal a bit more to the east.
This round of potential severe weather should be mainly a Wednesday at 4p through Thursday morning at 3a event.
A quick glance at the CIPS data that came back this morning, and there is a 1-in-5 shot, historically, that a severe weather event like this produces widespread severe weather. It looks like historically the threat has been pretty modest.
I still wonder if the model guidance is under-doing things a bit, but this seems to be a trend within teh data that the potential for severe weather is going to be limited and conditional. Especially across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi and western Alabama.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tuesday
Morning showers/drizzle and patchy fog. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance for rain is around 60 percent.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 60.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Breezy. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Storms possible overnight. Some severe. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Thursday
Lingering morning storms possible, then mostly sunny.. Highs around 70.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Much cooler with lows in the lower 40s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50.
Saturday
Cloudy with showers and storms possible. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night
Cloudy with a few storms possible. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Excellent job Nick! I am loving this app and the detailed information you give on your forecasts. Have to say this is a lot better than WDAM’s weather app.