A bit foggy this morning for everyone. It shouldn’t be terribly dense, but in some spots you may need to slow down on the roads and give some extra space between you and the car in front of you.
As we move through today and tomorrow, we will be ushering in some warmth and humidity from the Gulf. This will start as some semi-recirculated air, though, and not true Gulf of Mexico air. Today’s air is imported, and slightly modified, from Minnesota.
That map is something called a “reverse trajectory” map from NOAA. It looks at where the air came from, instead of where it is going. It isn’t until Wednesday that we start to get air that is swinging around from the Gulf. And even then, it is from the east coast of Florida. Same model as above, but a different looking map below. This one shows where the air came from when looking at ground level, up about 1,500ft, and then up around 9,000ft on Wednesday afternoon.
You can tell a few things from looking at this map. The air closer to the round (red) has the shortest trip. The air up around 1,500ft (blue) is coming from almost the same area as the air at the surface. And the air up around 9,000ft (green) is coming from the Caribbean.
And, maybe most importantly, the air will be wind moving into the area from different directions.
And if you lay down warm subtropical air, underneath an incoming storm system with cooler air aloft, you are brewing a chance for storms and the potential for severe weather.
And guess what we’ve got…
A Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. That is a “1” on the 1-to-5 scale, where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather. The risk shown is across a pretty large area. And, given the data, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was increased to a Slight Risk (a “2” on the same scale) in the coming days for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. And, truthfully, I don’t know that I could rule out an Enhanced Risk (a “3” on the same scale) going up for a smaller area. It is going to end up being pretty conditional, though.
Again, this is for Wednesday and into Thursday morning early.
There is a chance we get a bit lucky with storms developing off the coast. That would and rob the low-level flow from the Gulf and basically knock these storms down at the knees. Given that this is about 48 hours out, usually we really start to get a better idea by this afternoon about specifics.
Once we get through the storms Wednesday and into Thursday, things clear back out and stay dry through the weekend.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny with a chance for a stay shower. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain about 10 percent.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy with a few showers possible. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance for rain around 20 percent.
Wednesday
Cloudy with storms possible, some severe, particularly in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Wednesday Night
Cloudy with storms likely. Some severe. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with lingering showers and storms. Severe threat lower. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
Friday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 60.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Cooler with lows in the mid 30s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Cold with lows in the lower 30s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
