I’m currently in Boulder, Colorado at a conference with a bunch of data scientists. I’ll be giving a talk on Wednesday, but today and tomorrow I’m learning about how to use Python coding and how I can use ‘big data’ to make a forecast better.
Speaking of the forecast: Today and tonight, we’re keeping an eye on the possibility of thunderstorms with gusty winds as our main concern. Our area is experiencing a bit of an unusual upper-level weather pattern with lower-than-normal heights up above and slightly warmer temperatures at around 850mb. This combination is causing steep lapse rates, creating a favorable environment for strong updrafts, even though the moisture levels are a bit lower than usual.
Since the air is well-mixed and the convective condensation levels are higher than usual, the thunderstorms that develop during the day may bring locally strong to potentially severe microburst wind gusts.
Moisture from the western Gulf will also make its way into our region, resulting in PWAT values of 1.5-1.8 inches, especially in the southern areas, throughout most of the forecast period. We’ll need to keep an eye on the potential for microbursts in the upcoming forecasts.
Thursday could be the next round of potential storms. A weak front and some very warm, moist iar, could result in some more potent-than-normal storms.
As we head into the weekend and early next week, there are indications that the upper ridge will break down, allowing an upper-level trough to influence our area. However, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty among the forecast models at this time. The Euro model places the trough further west, while the GFS model projects a much stronger upper-level low to the east.
All things worth watching!
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the upper 60s.
Thursday: Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
Saturday: Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.
Sunday: Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
