Severe weather is the main headline today as impacts from damaging winds, large hail, and tornados could be possible within multiple rounds of storms. We owe this severe threat to a few different factors including a stationary front that is draped across the southern US from Texas through Georgia, abundant gulf moisture, and a a strong subtropical jet stream. These factors will give us our highest chance for severe weather today so let’s take a closer look as to the hazards and timing of the hazards!
Currently, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed us under a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe weather. This multi-round severe risk is primarily a damaging wind and hail driven threat, but an isolated tornado especially in the second round of storms cannot be ruled out.
Storms within the first round are expected to form in the overnight hours and will likely be a clustered or multicellular mode which will lower the overall risk for tornados, but increase the risk for damage wind and hail. These storms will first move into Louisiana before advancing west into Mississippi by mid morning and finally Alabama by early afternoon. For our friends in the western portions of our region, impacts to your morning commute could be possible so plan accordingly!
The next round of storms are a bit more uncertain with the mode in which they will be due to the morning storms. If outflow boundaries from the morning storms can remain spaced far enough apart a more discreet storm mode could take shape. This would increase the threat for tornadoes as well as hail and damaging winds and trends should be monitored into the afternoon and evening hours as more certainty is realized with the expected storm mode.
The discrete storm mode won’t be long lasting however as a Low moving out of Texas is expected to force storms into a more linear storm mode reducing the tornado and hail threat, but increasing the damaging wind threat. Overall, each round will possess similar hazards and should be monitored as the day progresses!
In additional to the severe weather threat, there also exists a threat for flash flooding across the region. Any storms that form could produce decent rainfall. Combined with the multiple rounds currently expected, flash flooding will be a concern across the region. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), currently has the region under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for excessive rainfall with rainfall values of one to three inches across the region. Given that storms have been impacting the area as of late, soils are also already saturated and will not take much water to begin to flood. Remember to not drive in flooded roadways and be caution driving in the dark as it becomes difficult to see how deep the water may be.
Looking ahead, this stationary front doesn’t seem to be going anywhere fast as it will remain draped across the region. This will continue to lead to storm development along this boundary, but with a much lower severe threat as the upper level pattern shifts with a developing ridge over the central parts of the US expected later this week.
Starting Friday, the region will begin to be placed under the effects of an upper level ridging pattern which will lead to increases in heat across the region. Temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s can be expected with higher heat index values due to dew point temperatures in the 70s. Those working outdoors for long periods of time should take breaks and wear light clothing in order to mitigate the effects of heat!
Overall, the pattern will remain fairly active and hot as the effects of El Nino continue to become realized across the region. As we continue move further into the summer months mitigation methods should continue to be used to protect oneself from the heat and storms. Remember to monitor yourself during excessive heat conditions especially if you don’t normally work in those conditions and to remain weather aware with any storms that could be in the region.
REGIONAL DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning with an additional round expected in the afternoon to evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a thunderstorm or two before midnight. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices may reach up to 100 degrees. Winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Some of these storms may be severe. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices in the upper 90s to 100s possible. Winds out of the west at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday night: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Low temperatures in the low 70s. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices may reach up to 105 degrees. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices may reach up to 105 degrees. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 20%.
Monday: Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures in the upper 90s. Heat indices may reach up to 105 degrees. Winds are light and variable. Chance of rain 20%.
Monday night: Mostly clear. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds are light and variable.
