Greetings!
Hi everybody! My name is Kaden Schroeder and I am excited to debut agriculture forecasts once a week for central/eastern Kansas. Special thanks goes to Nick Lilja for giving me the opportunity to do this over the summer, and I hope you all find these forecasts helpful and useful to you. Any and all feedback is appreciated as well, so if there is anything else you would like to see, feel free to let me know. With all of that being said, let’s get into this first forecast!
Looking at the overall synoptic pattern set over the continental United States, we currently sit on the northern edge of a potent high-pressure system located in Texas. Being on the northern side of the ridge has positioned westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and has helped to spare us from most of the oppressive heat down south, as well as brought some rainfall to those mostly in central Kansas over the past couple weeks. The heat will be on in the short-term though, with numerous areas peaking in the low 100s in the back half of the week before slipping back to normal temperatures by the weekend and next week. Long-term, we are looking at the potential for above average temperatures and rainfall chances by the second week in July before returning to average temperatures and rainfall during the middle parts of the month.
Short-term/Long-term Outlook
For today, some areas across central and northern Kansas may see scattered rain showers to begin the morning from decaying storms originating in central Nebraska. Total rain amounts look to be negligible as these showers move through. By tonight, areas along and south of US-400 have the chance to see severe thunderstorms, as a complex of storms will form in southwest Kansas by around 4pm and move into a favorable environment as they march eastward, hugging the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Extreme instability and moderate wind shear aloft will help support largely a damaging wind risk (some gusts reaching as high as 75 mph) across the area. In addition to this, there is the possibility for large hail (some 2+ inches), especially for those west of I-35. While low, embedded tornadoes in these storms cannot be ruled out either. After this, we will really feel the heat beginning on Wednesday through Friday this week. Temperatures across most the area will jump into the upper 90s to mid 100s over this timeframe, before falling back down towards normal by the weekend.
Heading into the weekend, a cold front looks to move through the state Friday evening/Saturday morning and help boost rain chances during these two days. Widespread rainfall totals across the state look to be between a quarter to half an inch, with the possibility of locally high amounts of upwards of an inch, especially for those in north-central Kansas. After the weekend, more seasonal temperatures are to be expected into next week, with the possibility of pop-up showers and thunderstorms each day.
Agriculture Forecast
It’s no stranger that places along south-central Kansas are definitely hurting for moisture. Places around Howard, Moline, and Lathrop Tuesday-Friday will see total evapotranspiration rates peak at around 0.9 mm/hr as the heat rises into the low 100s and total water losses peak well above 1 mm/hr all the way to 1.4 mm/hr through Friday. In conjunction with this, we will see a rising trend in the 15 cm soil temperature, with peak temperatures reaching 89°F by Friday. Thunderstorms tonight should help with this depletion of moisture, as well as Friday and Saturday when rain chances increase again with the passing of a cold front, with total precipitation throughout the week possibly approaching an inch. Winds will remain steady throughout the week at around 10-15 mph out of the south before gradually decreasing by the weekend and into next week to 5 mph out of the northwest.
Further north around Clay Center, although drought conditions are better than in the southern portions of the state, we will see continued drying of soils as the majority of the next 7 days remain warm and dry. Temperatures, like down south, will jump into the upper 90s to low 100s before the weekend comes and drops things back down into the low to mid 90s. 15 cm soil temperatures will remain hovering around 80°F before the heat really sets in Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, as soil temperatures will rise up to around 86°F. After our hot period ends, look for a gradual decline in temps back down to between 82-84°F heading into next week. Winds will remain mostly steady out of the north at 10-15 mph before calming down to 0-5 mph by the weekend and into next week. Greater chances for precipitation are evident up here, with multiple opportunities possible through the end of the week and into next week, with the heaviest of days seeing peak rainfall over 0.5 mm/hr. ET rates will remain fairly high throughout the next 7 days, with rates hovering between 0.6-0.8 mm/hr, as well as total water loss rates peaking between 0.8-1 mm/hr.
Out in northeast Kansas around Leavenworth and Tonganoxie, soils will again be trending to drying out further. Air temperatures will see a bit of a rise on Thursday (into the low 100s), but not nearly as sharp as other locations to the south and west. Winds will be steady at 10-15 mph out of the east-southeast heading towards the weekend before changing direction to out of the north-northwest at 5-10mph after the weekend and into the next week. Precipitation rates this weekend, with the increased chances of showers and storms from the passing cold front, may reach up to 1.7 mm/hr. Water loss will again be a big factor, with ET rates peaking between 0.5-0.8 mm/hr and total water loss peaking between 0.8-1.2 mm/hr throughout the next 7 days.
Ending with east-central Kansas, places like Osage City, Lyndon, and Burlingame will meet in the middle of the aforementioned locations, with soaring temperatures to close out the week and scattered precipitation chances by the weekend and next week. Temperatures will rise into the low 100s by mid/late this week before settling back down into the low to mid 90s next week. 15 cm soil temperatures will rise to between 82-86°F in the back half of the week, before coming down to 79-83°F by the weekend and next week. A gentle breeze is to be expected leading up to the weekend, with winds between 5-15 mph mainly out of the east, before changing to out of the north by the weekend at 5-10 mph. The best chances for precipitation will be this weekend, with up to a 40% chance of rain, and total rainfall rates may reach up to 0.9 mm/hr during this time. Total water loss rates look to be around 1.1-1.3 m/hr Wednesday and Thursday before dropping to 0.7-0.9 mm/hr Friday and Saturday. Into next week, water loss rates will then stabilize at between 0.9-1.0 mm/hr. ET rates look to peak up to 0.8 mm/hr by Thursday before lightening up and dropping down to 0.5-0.7 mm/hr from Friday onwards to next Tuesday.
Climate Outlook and ENSO Update
Over the next 8-14 days, above average temperature and rainfall will be favored, in line with El Nino conditions currently in place in the Pacific Ocean. Currently, there is a slight risk out for potentially heavy rainfall for central and eastern Kansas July 4th through July 8th. Details regarding exact rainfall amounts are still murky at this time, as we will wait until the aforementioned time frame gets closer to get a better idea of what kind of rainfall amounts we could be facing. By weeks 3 and 4 at the end of July, average conditions will be favored during this period. Switching to current ENSO conditions, we are firmly entrenched in a moderate El Nino, with sea-surface temperatures in the El Nino 3.4 region 0.95 degrees Celsius above normal. Forecasts have SSTs climbing to above 2 degrees Celsius above normal by the fall before steadily cooling down by early next year. What this means for us is generally above average temperatures and precipitation throughout the summer and into the winter months, but as always, these conditions will vary on a weekly basis.
Drought Update
For many, except for a few counties in northeast Kansas, we are still experiencing drought conditions throughout the state. The worst of the drought, while has improved slightly over the past couple months, is still located in south-central and southern Kansas. Much of this region still remains in extreme to exceptional drought conditions. There is hope though, as virtually all of Kansas’s drought areas look to improve, with a few areas seeing potentially removal of drought conditions through September.
