I’m not going to bury the lede here, “It will be hot.” And while, sure, there is a chance for a few storms, most of them will be modest rain producers and may even be mostly ‘dry thunderstorms’ with more lightning and thunder than actual rain.
I want to talk about the tropics for a second, too.
As I talked about in my video forecast last night ( check it out here ) the area of potential development near the Gulf shouldn’t be ignored simply because some model guidance shows it heading toward florida. And I want to point toward a very good reason why.
Below on the left is the current satellite imagery of the Gulf, Yucatan and NW Caribbean. on the right is the model guidance for what should be happening right now.
The satellite data shows no area of low pressure off the coast of Honduras. The model guidance say, resoundingly, “YES! IT’S THERE!”
And it has done this for the last handful of runs.
I feel like Mean Girls.
As you can imagine, this creates a problem. When the model guidance sees something that isn’t there at “Initialization Time” + 12 hours, it is difficult to trust what it says will be out there at “Initialization Time” + 120 hours.
Will this eventually be a thing? Sure. But for now, we are still waiting for something to happen in the lower levels. And until something happens in the lower levels, we can’t tell you what will happen down the line with any of this.
Could this be a Florida problem? Yes. Could this be a Louisiana problem? Also yes.
We just don’t know yet. And anyone showing you model guidance suggesting an outcome with any level of certainty is being disingenuous. They can’t know. And I’ve seen a lot of it. And I’ve even seen it from people who I thought would know better and paid closer attention to things.
To quote every parent, ever: “I’m not mad at those people, I’m just disappointed.”
What I do know is that we have about 48 hours of watching this thing like a hawk this weekend. Once something happens, I’ll let you guys know. Until then, maybe check those Hurricane Kits and make sure your plan is in place.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly sunny. Hot with highs around 100. Northeast winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast this afternoon. Heat index values up to 110. Chance for rain around 10 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming west after midnight. Heat index values up to 106 early in the evening.
Saturday: Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with highs around 100. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values up to 112.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot with highs around 100 to 105. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values up to 111.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Hot with highs around 100. Chance of rain 30 percent. Heat index values up to 110.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 70.
Thursday: Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
May not be ANYTHING but, looking at the latest water vapor and visible radar loops, I ‘am’ seeing a flare-up in the region that is to the right of the Yucatan. Like I said, may not be anything, it is worth watching.