Expect calm weather today and tonight. A weak high-pressure system is in place today. That means nice weather, generally. This morning, given recent rains, patchy light fog to develop. In fact, we could see that tomorrow morning, too.
Starting tomorrow, a series of disturbances will move through our area offering a shot for some severe weather and the potential for some flooding, too.
- Thursday and Friday: A developing low-pressure system and its associated cold front will approach from the Texas Panhandle, bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms. These storms are expected to move through our area from Thursday evening through Friday evening.
- Severe Weather Potential: Conditions on Friday evening look particularly favorable for severe weather, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, high instability (CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg), and strong wind shear (50-60 kts). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a “Slight” risk for severe weather in parts of our area on Friday. This means we could see a few severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and possibly a few brief tornadoes.
- Flash Flooding Risk: Along with the severe weather, there’s a high potential for flash flooding. With very moist air in place (dewpoints in the lower 70s) and high levels of moisture transport, we could see heavy downpours. Rainfall totals are expected to be 1-2.5 inches north of I-20 and 2.5-5 inches south of I-20, with up to 6.5 inches possible near the Pine Belt. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a “Moderate” risk for flash flooding from Thursday evening through Friday evening.
By Saturday evening, the weak cold front will move out of our area, bringing an end to the rain. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area, leading to a warming trend with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s by early next week.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming north after midnight.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Friday: Showers likely. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday Night: A chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
Monday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.
